Homeowners will be looking to the skies and to Westminster after being told that future home insurance rises will depend on the weather and further tax hikes.

This follows an increase in the cost of the cheapest quotes for buildings insurance in the first quarter of 2016.

In its latest British Insurance Premium Index, the AA reported the average quoted 'Shoparound' premium (the average of the five cheapest quotes for each 'customer' in a variety of scenarios) jumped by 5.4% to £114.52/year at the end of March 2016.

The AA also recorded a small increase for contents insurance – up 0.7% to £60.47 – and for combined buildings and contents policies, up 3.6% to £157.51.

AA bosses have suggested that "competitive pressures" among insurers mean that the cost of home insurance is unlikely to reduce any time soon; however, they also claimed that – unless the heavens open for a sustained period of time – there won't be further price rises "over coming months".

For how to reduce the amount you're paying for home insurance, check out our guide.

Martin Lewis
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Other stats show the true cost of home insurance

If you're looking at the figures produced by the AA and are thinking to yourself "I pay a lot more than that for my home insurance", then the chances are you're not alone.

That's because the AA stats represent the average of the five cheapest quotes a customer could receive, which in many cases is not what you'd end up paying if, for example, you wanted to purchase a more comprehensive form of home insurance.

In a set of stats released earlier this week by the Association of British Insurers (ABI) for the first quarter of the year – based on findings from among its 250 insurer members – the cost of the average combined buildings and contents home insurance policy was calculated at £310/year. This equals the cheapest quarterly average premium since the start of 2012.

So the average amount people end up paying for a combined home insurance policy is £152.49 more than the figure the AA has calculated as being the average quoted 'Shoparound' premium.

Meanwhile, the ABI has worked out the average buildings-only policy as being £255 and the average contents policy as costing £136.

An ABI spokesperson declined to give a prediction when asked by MoneySavingExpert.com as to whether the trade body expected the cost of home insurance to go up or down in coming months.

What's driving the cost of home insurance?

A couple of major developments in recent times have served as a force for good and a cause for bad in terms of how home insurance prices have been impacted.

In his Budget earlier this year, Chancellor George Osborne announced a further increase to insurance premium tax (IPT, which is charged to insurers but often passed onto customers in the form of increased policy costs) to 10% from October 2016.

This came hot on the heels of the 6% to 9.5% rise in IPT from November last year, which the AA previously claimed would add around £5 to the average home insurance policy.

The ABI's director of general insurance policy James Dalton is warning that, for "competitive home insurance deals to continue", it's "imperative" there are no further increases to IPT.

Elsewhere, a more positive development has been the April introduction of the Government-backed scheme, Flood Re, which has allowed thousands of homeowners in flood-prone areas of the UK to get substantially cheaper home insurance premiums.

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