Christmas Deals Predictor
2021

Our calendar predicting the hottest deals to come, to help you plan when's best to purchase & spread the cost of Christmas

Take a slightly bigger pinch of salt with it this year. This is a predictor, and we've had a fairly unpredictable couple of years. Meanwhile, we've heard rumours stock shortages could limit the number of, or scale of, promotions.

Last year we got 57% of deals spot on and 81% either spot on or only marginally out – not bad for an unpredictable year. We hope to get more right this year but give us some wriggle room. And as we say every year, only ever buy what you need and can afford. If you can’t afford it, DON’T buy it.

November 2021

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

November 1st - 7th

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It's gone

Boots half-price Sanctuary Spa 'Star Gift' set

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

There's been a bit of a change-up with Boots Star Gifts in the last couple of years, and this year it surprised us by reducing the price of the popular Sanctuary Spa gift set a few weeks early. The 'Sanctuary Spa Favourites Gift Set' was reduced to £20 (normally £40) from Wed 20 Oct to Tue 30 Nov. It contained eight skincare and body wash items, including shower oil, a salt scrub and sleep mist. 

It's gone

Plusnet fibre broadband '£16ish/mth'

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 12 Nov
  • 2019: N/A
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

If you went via our Plusnet broadband link before 11.59pm on Wed 1 Dec, newbies could get standard broadband for an equivalent '£11.74/mth'. If you were after faster speeds, Plusnet offered fibre broadband for an equivalent '£16.40/mth'. Make sure to check Broadband Unbundled for the latest deals.

It's gone

Shell Energy cheapest fibre broadband '£17ish/mth'

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Mon 04 Nov
  • 2018: N/A
  • 2017: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

If you went via our Shell Energy broadband link before 11.59pm on Tue 30 Nov, newbies could get standard broadband for an equivalent '£12.66/mth'. If you were after faster broadband speeds, you could get fibre broadband for an equivalent '£16.99/mth'. 

Prediction

Thorntons 3for2 on Christmas gifts, lasting until Christmas Eve

When it started
  • 2020: Sun 01 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 07 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 05 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2021, but we'll update here if it does. Since 2017, Thorntons deals have been few and far between, and we're expecting that trend to continue. In the past, it would've released a 15-20% off code, but the last three years it's ran a 3for2 on Christmas gifts instead. While it's a hard one to predict with much accuracy, we're expecting something similar to last year for 2021 and for it to start around Mon 1 Nov. Keep an eye on our Thorntons page for updates.

November 8th - 14th

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It's gone

AO.com discounts on 100s of items, lasting about 3 weeks

When it started
  • 2020: Wed 11 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 13 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 12 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 13 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As in previous years, AO.com discounted hundreds of items for Black Friday, beginning this year on Wed 10 Nov. It had over 1,500 deals online (last year it had over 900), with most joint-cheapest on the market, often price-matched by Argos, Currys or John Lewis.

It's gone

La Redoute up to 50% off everything for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 12 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 14 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 17 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Exactly when we predicted, La Redoute started it's Black Friday offer on Thu 11 Nov, and ended on Tue 30 Nov. The offer was a little stronger than we were predicting, as it was up to 50% off rather than last year's up to 40% off. The discount included many popular brands, eg, Dr Martens, Levi's and Ugg. 

It's gone

Disney FLASH 24% off toys code, two days only

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 03 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 12 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 13 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 14 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

This year, ShopDisney started its Toy Tuesday on Tue 9 Nov. You were able to get 24% off toys and costumes online at ShopDisney from Tue 9 Nov to Wed 10 Nov. The code was valid on around 500 items across toys, costumes and stationery. However, we did spot some items cheaper at Amazon, showing how important it is to also check prices before buying. 

Prediction

Habitat 25% off code valid on almost everything, for four days

When it started
  • 2020: Wed 11 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 13 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2021, but we'll update here if it does. In past years, we've seen Habitat offer its 25% off everything code the Thursday before Black Friday, however, for the last three years it's happened a full week earlier. We've not seen Habitat offer as many codes as usual this year – it had up to 20% off selected items in Aug and Oct, but not site-wide codes. We're not sure if this will happen this year. Keep an eye on our Habitat deals page for updates.

November 15th - 21st

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It's gone

Adidas up to 50% off selected items, for around a week

When it started
  • 2020: Mon 23 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A few days earlier than we predicted, Adidas kicked off it's 'up to 50%' off Black Friday sale on Fri 19 Nov. When it first launched we spotted disounts on over 7,500 items across all departments. It then offered an extra 20% off code on Cyber Monday. 

It's gone

Amazon 'lightning' & daily deals, lasting for 10 days

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 20 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 22 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 17 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as predicted, Amazon started pumping out Black Friday deals, both daily deals and more frequent but short-lived 'lightning' deals, from Fri 19 Nov until Mon 29 Nov. A few strong examples we spotted included Echo Dot (3rd gen) for £18.99 (was £39.99) and Echo Dot (4th gen) for £28.99 (was £49.99) – however, Currys, Argos and John Lewis and AO.com price-matched these.

It's gone

Dyson daily deals for Black Friday, likely until Cyber Monday

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 19 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just a day earlier than we predicted, you could get up to £100 off selected items online at Dyson for Black Friday. The offer was slightly weaker than last year, where it offered up to £150 off selected items. Dyson also offerered a Black Friday price promise where it would refund the difference if you found it cheaper at Argos, Currys and John Lewis within seven days of purchase. 

It's gone

John Lewis discounts, for about a week

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 20 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, high street retailer John Lewis was offering discounts on hundred of items across electrical, home, fashion, beauty, toys and more for Black Friday. It also price-matched other retailers. A few examples of discounts we spotted included an Amazon Echo Dot (3rd gen) for £18.99 (normally £49) – same price at Currys, and a Nespresso Vertuo Plus coffee machine for £69 (normally £179.99) – same price at AO.com. 

It's gone

Kurt Geiger 30% off selected styles, lasting over a week

When it started
  • 2020: Wed 18 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 20 Nov
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slightly different to what we predicted, Kurt Geiger kicked off its 30% off selected styles Black Friday promotion, from Fri 19 Nov through Black Friday weekend. There was no code or voucher needed, the discount was applied automatically and clearly marked online. 

It's gone

Tesco 25% off 6 bottles of wine, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2020: Wed 18 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 19 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Starting just a day later than we predicted on Thu 18 Nov, Clubcard holders could get 25% off when buying six or more bottles of wine, sparkling wine (including prosecco) or champange at Tesco, until Mon 29 Nov. The deal was available online and and in stores.

Black Friday is on Fri 26 Nov this year. However, we see many retailers start sales much earlier than this. See our full Black Friday 2021 analysis.

November 22nd - 29th

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It's on

Ikea '£9' Christmas tree, until just before Christmas Eve

When it started
  • 2020: Sun 22 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 21 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

From Mon 22 Nov, until Thu 23 Dec (if stock lasts), buy a £29 real Christmas tree from Ikea and you'll be given a £20 voucher to spend at any participating store between 10 Jan and 13 Feb 2022. As long as you'd spend £20 at Ikea anyway it means you effectively get a £9 tree. This is always popular and the trees can sell out quickly. See our full Ikea '£9' Christmas tree analysis.

It's on

£10-£50 West End theatre tickets, usually sell fast

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Fri 06 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

Confirmed! Starts on Tue 23 Nov

 

Official London Theatre's confirmed that from 10am on Tue 23 Nov, Mastercard holders can get access to £10-£50 tickets for top London shows for performances throughout Jan and Feb 2022. The tickets then go on general sale for everyone else from 10am on Tue 7 Dec. Official London Theatre hasn't been able to confirm with us yet which shows will be included, but in previous years we've seen discounted tickets for Mamma Mia!, Matilda and Wicked. See our full £10-£50 West End theatre tickets analysis

It's gone

Apple 'free' gift card with big purchase, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, Apple offered 'free' gift cards of up to £160 with selected large purchases during its Black Friday "shopping event", from Fri 26 Nov to Mon 29 Dec. This offer is slightly stronger than last year where it offered up to £120 off.

It's gone

Asos up to 80% off everything, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 26 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just when we predicted it would start, Asos kicked off it's Black Friday offer on Thu 25 Nov, until 8am on Tue 30 Nov. It's offered up to 80% off everything, which is stronger than last year's offer of 'up to 70% off'. From what we saw, most items seem were reduced by around 20%-30%. It also offered flash discount codes throughout the promotion, including an extra 15% off everything and an extra 20% off. A strong example we spotted was Birkenstock sandals for £25.50 (normally £60). 

It's gone

Benefit 20% off code, for around two weeks

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A couple of weeks earlier than predicted, you could get 20% off at make-up and skincare brand Benefit when you entered the code ADDTOBAG at checkout, from Mon 15 Nov to 11.59pm on Mon 29 Nov. If you were spending £60 or more, you got 25% off and if you were spending £100 or more, you got 30% off. 

It's gone

eBay daily discounts & price matching, for over two weeks

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

This year, eBay kicked things off even earlier with an 'up to 50% off sale' from Fri 12 Nov. We also saw new daily deals and discounts added, too.  When we checked on Wed 24 Nov, there were over 400 items included in the sale. On the day itself, we saw strong deals on a Nintendo Switch (£239.99) which was cheapest we saw one. 

It's gone

French Connection 20% off everything, lasting a few days

When it started
  • 2020: Mon 23 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, French Connection kicked off its Black Friday offer on Mon 22 Nov. However, it changed its offer slightly from previous years to 20% off everything, rather than 30% off full-price items. This year, sale items and homeware were included. There was no code or voucher needed, the discount was applied automatically. Excluded giftcards. 

It's gone

Game 'up to 50% off' games and accessories, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Console and games retailer Game has previously been a big player on Black Friday, however, similar to last year, most of the products we saw were the same price or cheaper elsewhere – hammering home that it's important to compare prices before buying. Game had some offers, for example, a free £5 voucher with a £50+ purchase.

It's gone

Gap 50% off everything online, for about a week

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 26 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just a day earlier than we predicted, Gap kicked off its 50% off everything Black Friday promotion, which ended on Sun 28 Nov. 

It's gone

H&M 20% off including sale, for a couple of days

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 26 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, H&M offered 20% off evertything for Black Friday. From Wed 24 Nov, H&M Plus members could get early access to the offer, and on Thu 25 Nov it was available via the app only. It was then available H&M members online on Friday. There was no code needed - the discount was applied automatically either at the checkout online or at the till in store.

It's gone

50% off Illy coffee machines, for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!
 

Slightly different to offers in previous years, this year coffee company Illy was offering a 'free' coffee machine (normally £156) when you bought 24 packs of coffee pods. The pods would cost you £164.40, so a fairly hefty up-front cost to get the 'free' machine, but could be worth if you think you'd save in the long run.

It's gone

M&S 20-50% off furniture and homeare, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Despite telling us it wasn't taking part in Black Friday again this year, M&S had a range of offers live Black Friday week across lighting, homeware and soft furnishings. We saw up to 50% off lighting, 40% off homeware and 20% off soft furnishing

It's gone

Matalan 'special buys', for about a week

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 26 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slightly different to what we predicted, high street retailer Matalan launched a 20% off full-price code for Black Friday, from Mon 22 Nov until 11.59pm on Mon 29 Nov. It also had a range of other offers on site, but these couldn't be used alongside the code. The code didn't work on any sale items, just full-price.

It's gone

Nike 25% off full-price and sale code, for a few days

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Sat 17 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Starting a few days later than we predicted, Nike members could get 25% off almost everything via a code, from Thu 25 Nov to Mon 29 Nov. In previous years anyone could get the offer, but this year you needed to sign up to the free Nike Membership programme. When we checked on Thu 25 Nov, there were over 1,900 items included in the offer.

It's gone

Ralph Lauren 25% off select items, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slightly different to what we predicted, Ralph Lauren offered 25% off selected items across men's, women's and kid's fashion for its Black Friday sale, until 11.59pm on Mon 29 Nov. 

It's gone

Ryanair seat sale, lasting for the week of Black Friday

When it started
  • 2020: Mon 23 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, low cost airline Ryanair kicked off a 'Cyber Week' promotion, with a different deal happening every day for the week of Black Friday. When we looked on Mon 22 Nov, it was offering return city breaks from £9.99, for travel between November and February. On Friday it had a buy one get one free seat sale, for travel between December and February. 

It's gone

Selfridges 20% off code, for a few days

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 13 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, and following what it's done in previous years, Selfridges started it's 'Christmas Comes Early' Black Friday promotion on Wed 24 Nov. It offered up to 20% off when you entered the code SELFCCE online at the checkout, from Wed 24 Nov until 11.59pm on Mon 29 Nov. The full 20% off was valid on selected items including fashion, homeware and accessories, but beauty was capped at 10% off.

It's gone

ShopDisney 20% off 1,000+ items. Online only, for 5 days

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Two days earlier than in previous years, ShopDisney offered 20% off 1,000+ items online, from Wed 25 Nov to Mon 29 Nov. You needed to enter the code MAGIC20 at the checkout. If you were spending more than £60, you got 30% off instead.

It's gone

Urban Outfitters up to 50% off, for about 4 days

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slightly earlier than we predicted, from Thu 25 Nov went online to Urban Outfitters or into a store, you could get up to 50% off selected items in its Black Friday sale. Urban Outfitters claims it was its biggest sale yet, with over 10,000 lines included.

Prediction

Sainsbury's Tu 25% off sale, for about a week

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 26 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2021, but we'll update here if it does. In previous years, Sainsbury's has offered 25% off its Tu clothing range in the first week of December, but for the last three years it's happened in the week of Black Friday. We expect it do the same this year and predict it'll kick off on Tue 23 Nov, lastung until Cyber Monday. You can usually also get the discount at Argos too, which sells Tu clothing. We'll update you on our Sainsbury's deals page as soon as we know more.

Prediction

Argos 'free' voucher with purchase, for about a week

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Wed 28 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 29 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2021, but we'll update here if it does. Previously, Argos ran an offer where if you spent £50/£100, you got a voucher for £5/£10 off your next purchase. If you were bulk buying, you could split your purcahse into several £50 or £100 spends to receive multiple vouchers. We didn't see this happen in 2019 or 2020, so we're not sure if it will happen again this year. See our Argos deals page for more info when we have it.

Prediction

£9-£10 champagne in stores, from 3rd week of Nov

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2021, but we'll update here if it does. We didn't see this happen last year or in 2018, but in the past supermarkets have slashed prices on champagne in the third week of November. In 2017, Lidl's Comte de Senneval champagne was reduced to £10 (norm £11.50), and then to £9 from 23 Nov, though stock would have been limited. Keep an eye out for corking deals on our Food & Drinks deals page.

Prediction

TalkTalk fibre broadband ‘£21/mth’

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2021, but we'll update here if it does. Deals come and go throughout the year, and Black Friday is just another period of providers offering cheap deals. During Black Friday 2018, TalkTalk had standard b’band for an equiv £12/mth, if you claimed and spent a £60 voucher. See our Broadband Unbundled tool for the latest deals.

December 2021

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

Nov - Dec 30th - 5th

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It's on

Half-price Soap & Glory 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 10 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 04 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's back!

 

The Soap & Glory 'Glorious' beauty set is half-price in Boots from Sat 10 Nov to Mon 15 Nov at £32.50 (normally £65). It will then be reduced again from Fri 3 Dec, subject to stock until Fri 24 Dec. The set contains body butter, a face mask, mascara and more, and if you were to buy products individually they'd cost £78. See our full Soap & Glory 'Glorious' analysis

It's on

Amex £5 cashback at local shops, for about 2 weeks

When it started
  • 2020: Sat 05 Dec
  • 2019: Sat 07 Dec
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 28 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

From Sat 4 Dec to Wed 15 Dec, American Express cardholders (some exclusions), can get £5 cashback when spending £15+ at selected local businesses including restaurants, clothes shops and hairdressers after registering their Amex with the Shop Small website. See our full Amex Shop Small analysis

It's gone

Free Santa letter in Braille, deadline Wed 1 Dec

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 01 Dec
  • 2019: Sun 01 Dec
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Santa and his elves at the RNIB send Braille, audio or large print replies for free (you needed to post it with a stamp, but that's the only cost involved). This year, the closing date for letters was Wed 1 Dec or Wed 22 Dec for email replies.

Prediction

Kurt Geiger 50% off sale items online & in stores

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 04 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 12 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 13 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 14 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2021, but we'll update here if it does. For the last five years, Kurt Geiger's up to 50% off sale has started in mid-December, giving you time to get last minute gifts in the sale before Christmas. For the last four years, Kurt Geiger boosted the sale post-Christmas to up to 70% off. Keep an eye on our Kurt Geiger page for updates.

If you see a good deal for something you need around this time, or closer to Christmas, it may be safer to pounce on it. Previously, many have waited for retailers to boost sales after Christmas and sometimes again in mid-January, but we can’t be certain prices will drop further due to the uncertainties right now.

December 6th - 12th

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It's on

£10 1L Baileys in supermarkets, for about 4 days

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 19 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 05 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 29 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's back!
 

The Baileys price-cutting battle has begun! From Thu 11 Nov until Sun 14 Nov, big bottles of Baileys Original (1L) was reduced to £10 (norm £20) at Asda. It's now back up to the current promotional price of £12. However, it's now £9.99 for a one-litre bottle at Morrisons (for a second time), and £10 for the same size bottle at Sainsbury's. On Tue 7 Dec, we saw Tesco drop the price even further to £9.50 for Clubcard holders, see full details in our Bailey's page

It's on

Free Santa letter (Royal Mail), deadline Fri 10 Dec

When it started
  • 2020: Fri 11 Dec
  • 2019: Fri 06 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Some companies charge up to £10 to reply to kids' letters to Father Christmas. Yet if you apply to Royal Mail, you could get a response from Santa for the price of a return stamp (85p first class, 66p second class). The deadline this year is Fri 10 Dec. See our full Free Santa Letter details.

Prediction

The Body Shop 40% off most items, for about a week

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Thu 06 Dec
  • 2017: Mon 11 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 6 Dec

 

The Body Shop is renowned for running promotions throughout the year, so it's rare you'll ever need to pay full-price. In previous years, it offered a code for 40% off most items, plus a free gift with your purchase, but we didn't see the free gift offered in 2018, and in 2019 and 2020 we didn't see this offer at all. We're not sure if it'll happen this year, but if it does we're predicting it'll start on Mon 6 Dec. Check our The Body Shop page for updates. 

Prediction

M&S 30% off Christmas decorations, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Tue 10 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 18 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 19 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 7 Dec

 

For the last few years, you could get discounts on wrapping, cards, trees and gifts at M&S from the third week of December. In previous years the offer has been 50% off, but for the last two years it was 30% off instead. If you can wait until a week before the big day, or want to stock up for next year, you could make a considerable saving. However, we didn't see this deal happen last year, so it's hard to say whether we'll see it this year. Keep an eye on our M&S page for updates. 

Prediction

Half-price No7 beauty 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2020: Wed 09 Dec
  • 2019: Wed 11 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 14 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 15 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 8 Dec

 

We've seen Boots Star Gift work a little differently the last couple of years, with them starting earlier and lasting for longer, so it's a little harder for us to predict what its deals are going to be in 2021. Based on last year, we're predicting that the No7 gift set will be half-price from Wed 10 Dec this year. It's usually a set that normally costs around £80 and contains skin-care and make-up. Keep an eye on our No7 page for updates. 

December 13th - 19th

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It's coming

Ikea 'up to 50% off' winter sale, online and in stores

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 01 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? This deal is coming!

Confirmed! Starting on Mon 13 Dec

 

A few days earlier than we predicted, Ikea's confirmed that its winter sale will kick off on Mon 13 Dec, and will end on Sun 9 Jan. Last year, there are over 400 items discounted, across furniture, decoration, storage, textiles and Christmas. What's particularly good about this sale is that usually Christmas decorations are included, so you could buy decorations at reduced prices for this year. 

Prediction

John Lewis 30% off Christmas decorations, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 15 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 17 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 11 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 12 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 14 Dec

 

In 2019 and 2020, John Lewis offered 30% off Christmas decorations around 10 days before Christmas. However, in previous years, it offered up to 50% off instead. Last year we didn't see many decorations reduced, so we're not sure what stock will be like this year. We're predicting it'll do the same as last year and offer 30% off decorations, from Tue 14 Dec. It could be a good time to stock up for next Christmas (or this year, if you leave things to last minute). Check our John Lewis page for updates.

Prediction

Virgin Atlantic winter sale, until 2 Feb

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 15 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 17 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 14 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 14 Dec

 

For the last few years, we've seen Virgin Atlantic launch its 'Winter sale' a week or so before Xmas. In 2020, we saw Heathrow to New York return flights from £274 & Heathrow to Tel Aviv from £275 return. The sale was valid on flights departing from 22 Dec 2020 to 31 Dec 2021. We predict it will start the sale around a similar time this year and kick off on Tue 14 Dec. 

Prediction

14p cheap Christmas veg, supermarket price war

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 17 Dec
  • 2019: Mon 16 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Wed 20 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 16 Dec

 

For the last few years, supermarkets have started battling in a price-war over Christmas vegetables a few days before Christmas. Last year Aldi was first to go with selected veg from 19p on Thu 17 Dec. This was then quickly followed by Lidl two days later with 15p veg. Aldi then dropped it's prices to 14p to beat Lidl – before Tesco entered the ring with a selection of 19p veg. We saw Aldi and Lidl offering Brussel sprouts (500g), carrots (1kg), parnsips (500g) and more for just 15p. Keep your eyes peeled for cheap veg updates

Prediction

British Airways 'January' sale, until 2 Feb

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 17 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 16 Dec

 

In 2019 and 2020, British Airways launched its sale about a week before Christmas – usually on the Thursday before. Last year we spotted deals such as return flights from Heathrow to New York for £269, and London to Dubai for £299 return. Flights and holidays in the sale were for travel between Janaruary and November 2021, and we'd expect to see a similar sale this year. 

Prediction

H&M up to 50% off sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 17 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 16 Dec

 

From 2016 to 2018, H&M started it's up to 60% off sale the Friday before Christmas, however in 2019 and 2020 it surprised us and started it a day early on the Thursday. We then see the sale boost to up to 70% off in January. We'd expect it to do the same this year, and start on Thu 16 Dec. Keep an eye on our H&M page for updates. 

This is where we'd usually expect to see more of the big sales start, and some existing sales boost to larger discounts – usually up to 70% off, though some years we’ve seen boosts of up to 90% off. However, with shipping delays and stock issues, we may not see sales boosting or lasting as long. This year more than ever, if you wait for a bigger discount there's a risk items you want could sell out.

December 20th - 25th

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Prediction

Asos up to 70% off sale, likely to boost to up to 80% off

When it started
  • 2020: Mon 21 Dec
  • 2019: Fri 20 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 20 Dec

 

In the past, Asos has started it's up to 50% off 'January sale' on the Friday before Christmas, however last year it changed things slightly and started on the Monday. Last year the sale also started stronger at 'up to 70% off'. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, we saw the sale boost a week later. We'd expect it to to do the same this year, starting on Mon 20 Dec and boosting around a week later. See our Asos deals page for updates. 

Prediction

Easyjet 350,000 seats for £19.99, lasting until 3 Jan

When it started
  • 2020: Wed 23 Dec
  • 2019: Mon 23 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 22 Dec

 

For the last few years, Easyjet's launched its 'up to 20% off' seat sale around a week before Xmas, but for the last two years it's started a few days later. Last year it offered a £19.99 seat sale which was available on 350,000 seats for selected flights between 1 Apr and 31 Oct 2021. You could book up until 3 Jan, or when all seats had gone. There was also £100pp off on all 2021 summer beach holidays. We're not sure if it'll have a seat sale or the usual 20% offer, but predict it will start around Wed 22 Dec. 

Prediction

Body Shop up to 50% off sale, lasting a few weeks

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 24 Dec

 

For the last three years, Body Shop has kicked off it's 'up to 50% off' sale on Christmas Eve. In previous years, it had started on the 21 or 22 Dec. The sale is normally both online and in stores and we don't usually see it boost any further. We'd still expect it to start on Christmas Eve again this year. See The Body Shop deals for the latest updates.

Prediction

Boots up to 50% off sale, likely to boost in stores in Jan/Feb

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 24 Dec

 

In previous years, Boots has kicked up off its 'up to 50% off' sale online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. We usually see the sale boost to 'up to 70% off' towards the end of January, in stores only. The sale often includes Christmas gift sets and fragrances. See our Boots page for updates. 

Prediction

John Lewis up to 50% off sale, not likely to boost further

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 24 Dec

 

John Lewis usually starts it's 'January sale' on Christmas Eve, online & in stores. It doesn't actually bill its clearance as 'up to 50% off', but usually matches competitors' reductions & last year we spotted up to 50% off home, fashion, toys, furniture & more, as well as offers on a range of electricals. We don't usually see the discount increase any further, so if you want something it might be worth buying as soon as the sale starts. We're predicting this sale will start on Christmas Eve – see John Lewis deals for updates.

Prediction

Matalan up to 50% off sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 24 Dec

 

For the last four years, Matalan has kicked off its 'up to 50% off' Boxing Day sale on Christmas Eve online and on Boxing Day in stores. It's likely to boost to up to 70% off in January. We'd expect to see the same as last year and for this to start on Christmas Eve. See our Matalan page for updates.

Prediction

M&S up to 50% off sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 24 Dec

 

One of the big ones that MoneySavers wait for, M&S usually starts its 'up to 50% off' sale online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. We usually see the sale boost to 'up to 60% off' on at the beginning of January, then boost further a couple of weeks later to 'up to 70% off' in mid Jan. In previous years, we've then soon it boost to as much as up to 90% off in stores at the end of January. See our M&S page for updates.

Prediction

Next at least 50% off sale, for a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 24 Dec

 

As it does every year, we'd expect the Next 'Boxing Day' sale to start online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. Always a popular one with MoneySavers as the discount is at least 50% off, rather then up to 50% off. We've not seen the discount increase any further in previous years, so we wouldn't expect it to this year. So if there's something you're after, it might be worth buying before stock sells out. It's summer and mid-season sales have happened as we'd have expected, so keep an eye out for Next updates

Prediction

Argos up to 50% off sale, lasts a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Wed 25 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 25 Dec
  • 2017: Mon 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 25 Dec

 

For the last few years, Argos has started it's sale online on Christmas Day and in stores on Boxing Day, however last year it started online on Christmas Eve. It was billed as 'up to 50% off' on over 1,300 items across home, furniture, appliances, jewellery and more. Argos stores weren't open last year on Boxing Day, so we'd expect it to follow the normal pattern and start on Christmas Day online. See our Argos page for the latest updates.

December 26th - 31st

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Prediction

Amazon up to 50%ish off sale, from Boxing Day

When it started
  • 2020: Sat 26 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 26 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sun 26 Dec

 

For the last five years on Boxing Day, Amazon has offered 24-hour 'Deals of the Day' and one off deals everything five minutes. While it doesn't give the sale a discount amount, from what we usually see 'up to 50% off' is a fair summary. In the past, we've seen decent deals from big brands including Philips, Oral B, Fitbit and Bosch. We'd still expect this sale to start on Boxing Day again, and end on New Years Eve. See our Amazon deals page for updates.

Prediction

Travelodge 25% off selected stays, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2020: Sat 26 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sun 26 Dec

 

In previous years, Travelodge has offered a deal at the end of December for selected dates the following year. In 2020, from Sat 26 Dec until Fri 1 Jan, you could get up to 25% off selected stays at Travelodge, for stays between 1 Jan and 30 May 2021. We predict Travelodge will do another similar sale this year, starting on Boxing Day. See Travelodge deals for updates.

Prediction

Asos up to 70% off sale likely to boost to up to 80% off

When it started
  • 2020: Wed 30 Dec
  • 2019: Sat 28 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 28 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 29 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Wed 29 Dec

 

For the last few years, Asos has boosted its sale around 28-30 December. Last year, the sale started stronger at 'up to 70% off' and then boosted to 'up to 80% off' on Wed 30 Dec. We'd expect it to do the same this year and predict it'll boost on Wed 29 Dec. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. We've seen it boost sales already this year, so keep an eye on our Asos page for updates. 

Prediction

H&M up to 60% off sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 31 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 31 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 03 Jan
  • 2017: Tue 03 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Fri 31 Dec

 

For the last couple of yeats, the H&M sale has boosted to 'up to 70% off' on 31 Dec. This year we're predicting that it'll boost on Fri 31 Dec. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. We've seen it boost sales already this year, so keep an eye on our H&M page for updates. 

Prediction

Mulberry up to 50% off sale, not likely to boost any further

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 31 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 26 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 31 Dec

 

Let's be honest, £900 handbags certaintly aren't MoneySaving. However... if you're going to buy one anyway and can afford it, you might as well get it while there's a decent discount to be had. Mulberry usually starts its up to 50% off 'January sale' on Boxing Day, both online and in stores. We'd expect to see the same again this year, so keep an eye on our Mulberry page for updates.

Prediction

Ryanair 500,000 seats from £9.99, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Mon 30 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 31 Dec
  • 2017: Sat 30 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 31 Dec

 

For the last few years, we've seen Ryanair offer 500,000 seats from £9.99, for a few days over New Years. In previous years, we've spotted flights from Bristol to Venice for £9.98 return and London Stansted to Barcelona for £19.98 return. However last year we didn't see it offering a seat sale, likely due to the pandemic and lockdowns. We expect to see the usual sale on New Years Eve this year, though. 

January 2022

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

January 1st - 9th

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Prediction

Eurostar £58 return (Jan-Mar trips)

When it started
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Tue 07 Jan
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Tue 02 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 4 Jan

 

In previous years, from the beginning to mid January, you could grab £58 return train tickets to Paris, Lille, Calais or Brussels from London St Pancras, Ebsfleet or Ashford International, in Eurostar's January sale. We didn't see this sale happen last year, but if it goes ahead this year we expect it to start around Tue 4 Jan. Keep an eye on our Eurostar deals page. 

Prediction

Carluccio's 2for1 for £1 voucher, for a few weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Sat 02 Jan
  • 2020: Thu 02 Jan
  • 2019: Thu 03 Jan
  • 2018: Thu 04 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 6 Jan

 

Italian restaurant chain Carluccio's has offered a rare 2for1 voucher in the first week of January for the last eight years, and it served up a repeat in 2020. If you ordered two main courses, you got the cheapest for £1 until Tue 11 Feb. It rarely offers discounts, so this deal is worth looking out for. We didn't see this one happen last year as restaurants weren't open, but we could see this return again this year. Keep an eye on our Restaurant Vouchers page for updates.

Prediction

The Sun '£9.50' holidays via tokens, collect in newspaper

When it started
  • 2021: Sat 09 Jan
  • 2020: Sat 04 Jan
  • 2019: Sat 05 Jan
  • 2018: Sat 06 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 8 Jan

 

Historically, we've seen The Sun offer its '£9.50' holidays at the beginning of January – and 2021 was no exception, as the offer was on from Sat 9 Jan until Tue 2 Feb. In reality, they're never actually £9.50, but if you dodged the costly extras you could get a trip for four people for £44. Given the current pandemic, we're not sure if this one will be going ahead or not, although it did run this promotion as usual in the summer. If it does happen, we expect it to start around Sat 8 Jan. See our Sun Holidays guide for updates.

Prediction

M&S up to 50% off sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Wed 15 Jan
  • 2019: Thu 10 Jan
  • 2018: Mon 15 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Wed 12 Jan
 

In the last few years, M&S has boosted it's sale to 'up to 70% off' in the second week of Jan. We then see it boost further into clearance in mid-Jan to 'up to 90% off'. Last year we didn't see it boost at all, so it may not again this year. However, based on previous years, if it does boost we're predicting it'll be on Wed 12 Jan. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. See our M&S page for updates.