Should I fix my energy or stay on the Price Cap?

Updated 29 September 2023

Average annual energy bills fell by 17% in July for those on standard tariffs (most households), and they'll fall a further 7% in October. With wholesale prices dropping, we've seen the return of a handful of tariffs that could be worth considering. We've full help to decide if fixing is right for you, plus analysis of the tariffs we've spotted...

Energy prices to fall by 7% on 1 October

On Sunday 1 October, the Price Cap will change, with prices falling by 7% on average. We'll update the info in this guide and in our 'Should you fix?' tool on Monday to reflect the new Price Cap.

'Should you fix?' need-to-knows

Before you switch, you need to understand how the Price Cap dictates what you pay over the next 12 months if you stick on a capped tariff...

If you're not on a fix, you’re almost certainly on a price-capped tariff, so that’s what you need to compare against

Almost every household is currently on a standard tariff with prices dictated by the Price Cap. For a typical household paying by direct debit, it's currently set at £2,074 a year. But it's not a cap on how much you pay, it only limits the standing charge and gas and electricity unit rates. See Price Cap FAQs for full info or see the full region-by-region rates in our Price Cap rates guide.

Yet that's not the full story as the Price Cap changes every three months, so you need to know how it's likely to change over the next year...

On 1 October, the Price Cap will fall by 7%, and will change again in January

The most important thing to understand is that price-capped tariffs are variable, and the prices change every three months in line with the Cap.

So when considering if it's worth switching to a fixed deal, you need to look at what is expected to happen over the course of the next year. A fix that looks decent now could end up costing you more over the next year if energy prices drop.

Note: Ofgem is lowering its typical use figures from October, we've included both levels below.

Energy Price Cap changes

Time period	Price Cap on CURRENT typical use figures (1)	Price Cap on NEW typical use figures (2)
CURRENT PRICE CAP RATE 1 Jul to 30 Sept 2023	£2,074 a year	£1,976 a year
NEW PRICE CAP RATE 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2023	DOWN 7% £1,923 a year	DOWN 7% £1,834 a year
1 Jan to 31 Mar 2024 Strong prediction (3)	UP 4% £1,996 a year	UP 4% £1,898 a year
1 Apr to 30 Jun 2024 Weak prediction (3)	DOWN 4% £1,912 a year	DOWN 4% £1,820 a year
1 Jul to 30 Sept 2024 Crystal-ball gazing (3)	DOWN 2% £1,872 a year	DOWN 2% £1,781 a year
1 Oct to 31 Dec 2024 Crystal-ball gazing (3)	UP 3% £1,922 a year	UP 3% £1,825 a year

Based on a dual-fuel household paying by direct debit. (1) 2,900kWh of electricity, 12,000kWh of gas. (2) 2,700 kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity, 11,500kWh of gas. (3) According to the latest prediction (on 29 September 2023) from analysts at Cornwall Insight.

Martin's rule of thumb for when it's worth switching

Some of this is crystal-ball gazing and averaging, but if the predictions above are right, our best guess as a rule of thumb is...

Based on current predictions (so no promises)

A fix for 6% LESS than July's Price Cap (1% MORE than October’s cap) looks a decent deal.

Yet if you strongly value price certainty, you may want to fix even higher.

We've full details of the current deals below, or if you want to check whether a deal you've been offered is worth considering, see our 'Should I fix?' calculator.

Should I grab a new energy deal?

We've a full list of the energy deals we're aware of below. Most are currently for existing customers only, but there are a handful anyone can switch to. We’ve also included a few other tariffs that aren't fixed, but could be worth considering (if you've been offered a deal we don't mention, please let us know by email).

Do bear in mind that what you'll pay varies by region and usage so once you have a quote, use our 'Should you fix?' calculator for our best guess on whether it's worth considering. Or see Stick, switch or fix your energy tariff? for your full switching options.

Energy deals currently available

Supplier & tariff info	Average cost compared with July Price Cap & exit fees (1)	Key info
Worth considering
Octopus Energy Loyal Octopus 12M Fixed Sept 2023 12-month fix Existing customers only	- 8% LESS than Cap - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
E.on Next Next Pledge Existing customers only	- Stays 3% LESS than every Cap (so moves with Price Cap) - £50 dual-fuel exit fees	Not a fix, but could be worth considering. This is a variable tariff that offers a fixed discount off the Price Cap for 12-months. It'll stay £50 below the Price Cap (at average annual use) for the fixed term – so about 3% less. See our Eon Next Pledge analysis for full info. Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
Cheaper, BUT it's complicated...
Utility Warehouse Fixed Saver 7 12-month fix until 30 November 2024 New and existing customers Fixed 7 12-month fix until 30 November 2024 New and existing customers	10% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees - 5% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	You need to take at least TWO other services with Utility Warehouse. See 'How do Utility Warehouse's fixed deals stack up?' Available as dual-fuel or electricity only. You need to take at least ONE other service with Utility Warehouse. See 'How do Utility Warehouse's fixed deals stack up?' Available as dual-fuel or electricity only.
Ovo Energy 1 Year Fixed + Boiler Cover 12-month fix Existing customers only	- 4% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	You need to be a homeowner and sign up to Ovo's boiler cover. This costs between £15 to £32 a month. You can choose not to auto-renew at the end of the contract. Likely only worth considering if you'd have got boiler cover anyway. Available as dual-fuel or electricity only.
Octopus Energy Octopus Tracker Variable Existing customers only	-	Not a fix and prices change daily, but could be worth considering. A smart variable tariff where the rates you pay change every day, In recent months, it's been cheaper than the Price Cap, but rates can increase quickly, so more of a gamble. See our Octopus Tracker analysis for more. Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
Octopus Energy Agile Octopus Variable Existing customers only	-	Not a fix and prices change every half-hour, but could be worth considering. Here the rates change every half an hour. It's best if you're able to shift energy usage out of peak times when the rates are at their highest. Rates can spike quickly, so you need to monitor it. See Octopus Agile analysis for more. Available as electricity-only.
Borderline (if you strongly value price certainty)
British Gas Smart Oct 24 v2 / Smart Fixed v6 12-month fix Existing customers only	- 4% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	You'll need to have or get smart meters. Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
E.on Next Next Fixed 12m v2 12-month fix New and existing customers	- 2% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
Shell Energy Energy November 2024 14-month fix New and existing customers	- 2% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
So Energy So Juniper 12-month fix New and existing customers	- 1% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	Get it via MoneySupermarket*, uSwitch or Gocompare, or directly through So Energy . Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
Sainsbury's Energy Fix and Reward 12-month fix New and existing customers	- 1% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	New customers get 2,000 Nectar points per fuel. Dual-fuel customers get triple points for each pound spent in Sainsbury's stores, single-fuel customers get double points (maximum 3,500 points per year, per fuel). Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
EDF Energy Essentials 1yr Oct24 12-month fix New and existing customers	- Same as Cap - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	You'll need to have or get smart meters. Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
Unlikely to be a winner
British Gas Fixed Oct 24 v2/ The Fixed One v25 12-month fix New and existing customers	- 1% LESS - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.
Ovo Energy 1 Year Fixed 12-month fix	- 1% MORE - £150 dual-fuel exit fees	Available as dual-fuel and electricity-only.

Correct as of 26 September 2023 (1) All tariffs assume typical use (2,900 kilowatt hours of electricity, 12,000 kilowatt hours of gas), paid by monthly direct debit – your exact price depends on region and usage.

Spotted an existing customer deal you want but you're not with that firm? You might still be able to get it

Many of the fixed deals available right now are still only for existing customers of that firm – particularly the cheaper ones that are more likely to be worth considering.

If you want one of these deals but you're not an existing customer, you may still be able to get it. Simply switch to that provider's standard tariff first, and once that's done ask to be switched to the existing customer deal.

The only issue here is if the deal you want is pulled before you become a customer. It can happen – deals can be pulled at any time without warning. Yet switching only takes five days, so it's a relatively small risk.

New. 'Should you fix?' calculator

We've been hard at work building a tool to help you work out if a fix you've been offered by your supplier is worth it. Enter your usage and region (or plug in your current rates for more accuracy if you know them), plus the new rates you've been offered, and we'll let you know the percentage difference, and our best guess on whether it's worth considering based on our rule of thumb. So grab a recent bill and the info of the deal you've been offered and give it a go.

Currently it only compares dual-fuel (gas and electricity) tariffs. As it's a new tool, please do give us your feedback.

Still not sure if it's worth it? You can also compare the unit rates and standing charges

If you're still not sure, you can double-check the unit rates and standing charges of the deal you've been offered, and then compare against the October Price Cap rates. If what you're offered is cheaper than this, it could be worth considering (based on current predictions).

You can see the current Price Cap rates below, but bear in mind these rates are averages, and exact rates vary by region – we've added those below the table if you'd prefer to use them to compare.

Average standing charges and unit rates from 1 October (paying by direct debit)

Gas

Unit rate: 6.89p a kilowatt hour (kWh)

Standing charge: 29.62p a day

Electricity

Unit rate: 27.35p a kWh

Standing charge: 53.37p a day

Rates and standing charges are averages, which vary by region. Assumes payment by direct debit and includes VAT (at 5%). For those who pay each month after getting a bill, it's typically 6% to 8% higher.

Prices vary by region – see regional direct debit rates and charges for 1 October to 31 December 2023

What are the standing charges and unit rates for gas and electricity under the Energy Price Cap on direct debit for my region from 1 October to 31 December 2023?

Gas

Electricity

North West

Unit rate: 6.90p per kWh