Christmas Deals Predictor
2022

Our calendar predicting the hottest deals to come, to help you plan when's best to purchase & spread the cost of Christmas

Take a slightly bigger pinch of salt with it this year. This is a predictor, and we've had a fairly unpredictable couple of years.

Last year we got 41% of deals spot on and 76% either spot on or only marginally out – not bad for another unpredictable year. We hope to get more right this year but give us some wriggle room. And as we say every year, only ever buy what you need and can afford. If you can’t afford it, DON’T buy it.

November 2022

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

November 31st - 6th

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It's on

Boots half-price Sanctuary Spa 'Star Gift' set

When it started
  • 2021: Wed 20 Oct
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

This one has been a little inconsistent over the last few years so we weren't too sure when it would happen. However the Sanctuary Spa 'Self-care Staycation' set is now reduced to £24.50 (normally £50) from Tue 1 Nov to Wed 30 Nov, while stock lasts. It contains seven skincare and body wash items, including body butter, a salt scrub and sleep mist. See our full Sanctuary Spa star gift analysis

It's on

Dyson daily deals for Black Friday, likely until Cyber Monday

When it started
  • 2021: Wed 17 Nov
  • 2020: Thu 19 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Earlier than we predicted on Wed 2 Nov, you can get up to £100 off selected vacuums online at Dyson for Black Friday. It also confirmed more items will be added to the sale, so keep your eyes peeled if you're after something. Dyson is also offering a Black Friday price promise where it'll refund the difference if you find it cheaper at Argos, Currys and John Lewis within seven days of purchase. See full sale analysis. 

It's on

Shark up to £220 off selected products, until Cyber Monday

When it started
  • 2021: Tue 16 Nov
  • 2020: Tue 17 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 19 Nov
  • 2018: Wed 14 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

For the last few years, Shark has launched its Black Friday sale on the Tuesday in the week of Black Friday. But this year it has surprised and arrived early on Thu 3 Nov, offering up to £220 off selected items until Wed 30 Nov. Shark told us there will be more items added to the sale over the coming weeks so keep your eyes peeled. See our full sale anaylsis.

 

Prediction

Thorntons 3for2 on Christmas gifts, lasting until Christmas Eve

When it started
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Sun 01 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 07 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2022, but we'll update here if it does. Since 2017, Thorntons deals have been few and far between, and we're expecting that trend to continue. In the past, it would've released a 15-20% off code, but the last three years it's ran a 3for2 on Christmas gifts instead. While it's a hard one to predict with much accuracy, we're expecting something similar to last year for 2021 and for it to start around Mon 1 Nov. Keep an eye on our Thorntons page for updates.

November 7th - 13th

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It's on

AO.com discounts on 100s of items, lasting about 3 weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Wed 10 Nov
  • 2020: Wed 11 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 13 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 12 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predicted, and as it's done in previous years, AO.com has discounted hundreds of items for Black Friday, beginning this year on Wed 9 Nov. When we checked on Fri 11 Nov it had over 1,100 deals online (last year it had over 900), with most joint-cheapest on the market, often price-matched by Very, Currys or John Lewis. See our AO.com full analysis

It's on

Benefit 20% off code, for around three weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 15 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just like last year, you can get 20% off at make-up and skincare brand Benefit when you enter the discount code BFF at checkout, from Mon 7 Nov to 11.59pm on Mon 28 Nov. If you're spending £60 or more, you'll get 25% off and if you're spending £100 or more, you'll get 30% off. See our full Benefit 20% off analysis

It's on

John Lewis discounts, for about a week

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 19 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 20 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predicted, high street retailer John Lewis is offering discounts on hundred of items across electrical, home, fashion, beauty, toys and more for Black Friday. It's also price-matching other retailers. A few examples of discounts we've spotted include a Nespresso coffee machine for £79 (normally £149) – same price at Amazon, and a Dyson vacuun cleaner for £329 (normally £429) – same price at Amazon. See our full John Lewis Black Friday analysis

It's on

La Redoute up to 50% off everything for about two weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 11 Nov
  • 2020: Thu 12 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 14 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Exactly when we predicted, La Redoute started it's Black Friday offer on Thu 10 Nov. The offer's the same as last year at 'up to 50% off' everything, lasting until 11.59pm on Tue 29 Nov. The discount includes popular brands such as Levi's & Nike. However, even with a discount La Redoute may not always be cheapest, so remember to check prices at elsewhere before buying. See our full La Redoute Black Friday analysis.

Prediction

eBay daily discounts & price matching, for over two weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 12 Nov
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

It's gone!

 

This year, eBay kicked things off even earlier with an 'up to 50% off sale' from Fri 12 Nov. We also saw new daily deals and discounts added, too.  When we checked on Wed 24 Nov, there were over 400 items included in the sale. On the day itself, we saw strong deals on a Nintendo Switch (£239.99) which was cheapest we saw one. 

Prediction

Habitat 25% off code valid on almost everything, for four days

When it started
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Wed 11 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 13 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Hasn't happened yet

 

We haven't seen this deal happen yet for 2021, but we'll update here if it does. In past years, we've seen Habitat offer its 25% off everything code the Thursday before Black Friday, however, for the last three years it's happened a full week earlier. We've not seen Habitat offer as many codes as usual this year – it had up to 20% off selected items in Aug and Oct, but not site-wide codes. We're not sure if this will happen this year. Keep an eye on our Habitat deals page for updates.

It's gone

Disney FLASH 25% off toys code, two days only

When it started
  • 2021: Tue 09 Nov
  • 2020: Tue 03 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 12 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 13 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

This year, ShopDisney started its Toy Tuesday on Tue 8 Nov. You were able to get 25% off toys, stationery and fancy dress online at ShopDisney from Tue 8 Nov to Wed 9 Nov. The code was valid on around 400 items across toys, costumes and stationery. However, we did spot some items cheaper at Amazon, showing how important it is to also check prices before buying. 

It's gone

Half-price Soap & Glory 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2021: Sat 13 Nov
  • 2020: Tue 10 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 04 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone! But it could be back...

 

Christmas wouldn’t be Christmas without Boots offering a discount on one of its hugely popular Soap & Glory gift sets. The Soap & Glory 'Home is Where the Spa is' beauty set was half-price online at Boots from Tue 8 Nov to Tue 15 Nov at £33.50 (normally £68). The set contained body butter, a face mask, dry shampoo and more, and if you were to buy products individually they'd cost £77. Last year, we saw Boots reduce this twice – once in November and again in December, so we predict that could happen again this year

Even though Black Friday isn't for another week, this is where we see a lot of the big retailers kick off their Black Friday sales, and the price-matching commences – so Martin's calling it 'Grey' Friday.

November 14th - 20th

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It's on

£10 1L Baileys in supermarkets, for a couple weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 11 Nov
  • 2020: Thu 19 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 05 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 29 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on
 

The Baileys price-cutting battle has begun! From Wed 16 Nov until Sun 27 Nov, big bottles of Baileys Original (1L) will be reduced to £10 (norm £22) at Sainsbury's. The next cheapest currently is £12.99 online and in store at Morrisons*,  We're awaiting to see if Tesco will repeat what it did last year on Tue 7 Dec, where it dropped the price even further to £9.50 for Clubcard holders, see full details in our Bailey's page

It's on

25% off 6 bottles of wine in supermarkets

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 18 Nov
  • 2020: Wed 18 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 19 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

The wine price-cutting battle has begun - cheers to that! Morrisons kicked things off this year on Mon 14 Nov, where shoppers can get 25% off when buying six or more bottles of wine, sparkling wine (including prosecco) or champagne, until Sun 4 Dec. The deal is available online and in stores. See full details on Morrisons here. Sainsbury's followed closely behind offering this deal on Wed 16 Nov, and we predict Tesco to also have this deal live on Thu 17 Nov. 

It's on

Adidas up to 50% off selected items, for over a week

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 19 Nov
  • 2020: Mon 23 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on


A few days earlier than we predicted, Adidas kicked off it's 'up to 50%' off Black Friday sale on Mon 14 Nov for 'adiClub' members. It opens to all on Mon 21 Nov. When it first launched we spotted disounts on over 8,000 items across all departments. Plus, it's hinted there could be more to come. In previous years, Adidas has offered an extra 20% off code on Cyber Monday, so we predict this will return. See our full Adidas Black Friday analysis

 

It's on

Amazon 'lightning' & daily deals, lasting for 11 days

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 19 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 20 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 22 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as predicted, Amazon has started pumping out Black Friday deals, both daily deals and more frequent but short-lived 'lightning' deals, from Friday 18 November until Monday 28 November. A few strong examples we've spotted include Echo Dot (3rd gen) for £16.99 (was £39.99) and Echo Dot (4th gen) for £19.99 (was £49.99) – however, Currys, Argos and John Lewis have price-matched these. See our full Amazon analysis

It's on

Google Store up to £100 off selected devices until Cyber Monday

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 18 Nov
  • 2020: Wed 18 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 22 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on

 

Google's Black Friday deals began on Thu 17 Nov, where you can save up to £100 off Pixel 6a devices and up to £45 off Nest Hub (2nd gen) devices, among many more deals. For example, the Nest Hub (2nd gen) is £44.99 (was £89.99). Also, if you buy any product between now and Mon 28 Nov, you'll recieve either a Google branded thank you note and stickers, or a Google branded small cardboard video game amplifier as a special thanks.

 

 

Prediction

Kurt Geiger 30% off selected styles, lasting over a week

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 19 Nov
  • 2020: Wed 18 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 20 Nov
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

It's gone!

 

Last year, Kurt Geiger kicked off its 30% off selected styles Black Friday promotion, from Fri 19 Nov through to Black Friday weekend. There was no code or voucher needed, the discount was applied automatically and clearly marked online. However, we've not seen any deals yet. There could still be a Black Friday sale to come, just perhaps a bit later on, so keep your eyes peeled. 

Black Friday is on Friday 25 November this year. However, we see many retailers start sales much earlier than this. See our full Black Friday 2022 analysis.

November 21st - 28th

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It's on

Asos up to 80% off everything, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 25 Nov
  • 2020: Thu 26 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Asos has kicked off it's Black Friday offer on Wed 23 Nov, offering up to 80% off everything until 8am on Tue 29 Nov, which is the same as last year. Though, most items seem to be reduced by around 20%-30%. In 2021, from Thu 25 Nov to Sat 27 Nov, Asos also had a code for an extra 15% off the sale, so we wouldn't be surprised if we see something similar again this year. See our full Asos Black Friday analysis.

It's on

French Connection 30% off everything, lasting a few days

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 22 Nov
  • 2020: Mon 23 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predicted, French Connection has kicked off its Black Friday offer on Mon 21 Nov. However, it's returned to its original and stronger offer from previous years with 30% off full-price items (last year it was 20% off). There's no code or voucher needed, the discount is applied automatically. Excludes giftcards. 

It's on

Game discounts on games and accessories, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 22 Nov
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Game has some offers on now for an 'Early Black Friday to tide you over' until the day itself on Fri 25 Nov. These deals include £60 off Xbox series S consule (Argos is price matching for £199.99) which comes with a £10 giftcard with purchase, and a Nintendo Switch consule bundle with Mario Kart game and 3 month's Nintendo Switch Online membership for £259.99 (was £311.97). We'd recommend checking back to see if prices drop further on Friday.

It's on

H&M 20% off including sale, for a couple of days

When it started
  • 2021: Wed 24 Nov
  • 2020: Thu 26 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predicted, H&M is offering 20% off evertything for Black Friday. From Thu 24 Nov, H&M members only can get this discount until 11.30pm on Sat 26 Nov - you'll need to apply this as a reward when you check out. We'd expect everyone to be able to access the offer after this date, although this is only a prediciton. However, last year it was only available to everyone who had the app so this could be this case again this year. 

It's on

Illy up to 40% off selected coffee machines

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 22 Nov
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Illy Black Friday offerings have differed over the years, and 2022 is no exception. This year, you can get up to 40% off selected coffee machines and up to 25% off selected coffee (pods, capsules, beans, ground and instant) and accessories until 11.59pm on Sun 4 Dec. There's no code needed, the discount is marked on the product.

It's on

M&S up to 20% off furniture, 20% coats & jackets and 20% off boots

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 22 Nov
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Despite telling us it doesn't take part in Black Friday, M&S have a few offers live this week across different departments. From Mon 21 Nov, we saw up to 20% off furniture when you spend £2500, 20% off selected jackets & coats and 20% off selected boots. No code is needed, the discount is already applied. Keep an eye on its website to see how these deals progress throughout the week. See our full M&S sale analysis

It's on

Matalan 20% off almost everything code

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 22 Nov
  • 2020: Thu 26 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just like last year, high street retailer Matalan has launched a 20% off full-price items with the code BLACKFRI20 for Black Friday, from Mon 21 Nov until 11.59pm on Mon 28 Nov. The discount will be automatically applied in store. The code also won't work on any sale items. See our full Matalan 20% off analysis.

It's on

Nike 25% off almost everything for a week

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 25 Nov
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Sat 17 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Nike members can get a blanket 25% discount online via the code GOBIG22 until 8am on Tue 29 Nov for Black Friday (exclusions apply). In previous years anyone could get the offer, but like last year you'll need to sign up to the free Nike Membership programme. When we checked on Thu 24 Nov, here were over 7,00 items included in the offer. See our full Nike 25% off analysis

It's on

£10-£50 West End theatre tickets, usually sell fast

When it started
  • 2021: Tue 23 Nov
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Fri 06 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

Confirmed! Starts on Thu 24 Nov

 

Official London Theatre's confirmed that from 10am on Thu 24 Nov, Mastercard holders can get access to £10-£50 tickets for top London shows for performances throughout Jan and Feb 2022. The tickets then go on general sale for everyone else from 10am on Tue 6 Dec. Official London Theatre hasn't been able to confirm with us yet which shows will be included, but in previous years we've seen discounted tickets for Mamma Mia!, Matilda and Wicked. See our full London Theatre sale info. 

It's on

Ralph Lauren 30% off select items, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 26 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Slightly stronger to what we predicted, Ralph Lauren is offering 30% off selected items across men's, women's and kid's fashion it its Black Friday sale, until 11.59pm on Mon 28 Nov. The offer is usually 20% off on orders up to £350, then 30% off over that. 

It's on

Ryanair seat sale, lasting for the week of Black Friday

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 22 Nov
  • 2020: Mon 23 Nov
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predicted, low cost airline Ryanair has kicked off a 'Cyber Week' promotion, with a different deal happening every day for the week of Black Friday. When we looked on Mon 21 Nov, it was offering 15% off January flights (valid on flights between Mon 9 Jan and Tue 31 Jan). This deal will expire and midnight and another will pop up tomorrow. We'll update you here once we know other offers. See our Cheap flights guide for full analysis.

It's on

Sainsbury's Tu 25% off sale, for about a week

When it started
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 26 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predicted, Sainsbury's has launched its Tu 25% off sale online and in stores on Tue 22 Nov, until Mon 28 Nov. There's no code needed, the discount will be applied automatically at the checkout. See full Sainsbury's Tu sale analysis

It's on

ShopDisney 30% off 100+ items. Online only, for 5 days

When it started
  • 2021: Wed 24 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

ShopDisney's offering 30% off 100+ items online from Wed 23 Nov to Sun 27 Nov while stocks last. There's no code needed, the discount is automatically applied. This is a stronger offer than last year where it offered 20% off. See our full ShopDisney Black Friday analysis

It's on

Urban Outfitters 50% off selected items

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 25 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

From Thu 24 Nov you can get up to 50% off selected items at Urban Outfitters for Black Friday. There's no code needed, the discount is already marked on items. The sale includes branded items such as Nike, Levi's and Adidas. It's not clear when the sale will end but we predict it'll last until Mon 28 Nov. See full sale analysis here.

It's on

Apple 'free' gift card with big purchase, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 26 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 27 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's coming: Fri 25 Nov

 

Just as we predicted, Apple has confirmed it'll be offering 'free' gift cards of up to £250 with selected large purchases during its Black Friday "shopping event", from Fri 25 Nov to Mon 28 Nov. This offer is stronger than last year where it offered up to £160 off. 

It's on

Ikea '£15' Christmas tree, until just before Christmas Eve

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 22 Nov
  • 2020: Sun 22 Nov
  • 2019: Thu 21 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

Confirmed! Starting on Thu 25 Nov

 

From Fri 25 Nov, until Sat 24 Dec (if stock lasts), buy a £25 real Christmas tree from Ikea and you'll be given a £10 voucher to spend at any participating store between 9 Jan and 12 Feb 2023. As long as you'd spend £10 at Ikea anyway it means you effectively get a £15 tree. This is not as strong as previous years, where it was a £29 tree and a £20 Ikea voucher. This is always popular and the trees can sell out quickly. See our full Ikea '£15' Christmas tree analysis.

It's on

Amazon Warehouse extra 20% off, for a few days

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 25 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 20 Nov
  • 2019: Fri 22 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

You can get an extra 20% off selected products at Amazon Warehouse* until 11.59pm on Saturday 31 December, as part of its Black Friday event. This section of Amazon's site offers returned items or mildly-damaged products for knock-down prices. Sadly, this isn't as strong a discount as it's offered on previous years for Black Friday – it usually includes 50,000-90,000 items and we've seen discounts up to 30% off. See full Amazon Warehouse sale analysis. 

It's on

Gap discounts across women's, men's and kids'

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 22 Nov
  • 2020: Tue 24 Nov
  • 2019: Tue 26 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Starting later than we predicted, Gap kicked off its Black Friday sale with discounts across women's, men's and kid's. However, the selection is a lot smaller compared to previous years with only 59 items across men and women's departments. Plus, the sale is usually billed as 'up to 50% off', however the discounts are automatically applied to items this year so you cannot see how much of a saving you're making. See our full Gap Black Friday analysis.

Prediction

Argos 'free' voucher with purchase, for about a week

When it started
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Wed 28 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 23 Nov

 

Previously, Argos ran an offer where if you spent £50/£100, you got a voucher for £5/£10 off your next purchase. If you were bulk buying, you could split your purcahse into several £50 or £100 spends to receive multiple vouchers. We didn't see this happen in 2019, 2020 or 2021, so we're not sure if it will happen again this year. If it does, we predict it'll be around Wed 23 Nov See our Argos deals page for more info when we have it.

Prediction

Selfridges 20% off code, for a few days

When it started
  • 2021: Wed 24 Nov
  • 2020: Fri 13 Nov
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 23 Nov

 

Posh department store Selfridges usually offers up to 20% off online and in store from the Wed before Black Friday to those signed up to receive its email newsletter. It's then usually available for everyone from Thursday. This is what happened in 2021, and we predict the same for this year on Wed 23 Nov. However, in 2020 it started the promotion over a week earlier than we predicted on Fri 13 Nov. We'll confirm details on our Selfridges deals page.

Prediction

Vodafone superfast fibre broadband '£14ish/mth'

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 25 Nov
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 25 Nov
 

Last year we saw some hot broadband deals from Vodafone, which on Black Friday itself reduced both its standard fibre and superfast fibre deals to an equivalent price of £13.75/month (£20/month + £150 shopping voucher). It happened to be the cheapest deal we’d seen in 2021. We could see something similar happen again this year, but it’s tricky to say. Most providers will announce some sort of ‘Black Friday deal’, but they haven’t always been the cheapest. On the day itself, check our Broadband Comparison tool to see what’s cheapest for you.

December 2022

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

Nov - Dec 29th - 4th

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It's on

Free Santa letter in Braille, deadline Fri 2 Dec

When it started
  • 2021: Wed 01 Dec
  • 2020: Tue 01 Dec
  • 2019: Sun 01 Dec
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Santa and his elves at the RNIB send Braille, audio or large print replies for free (you'll need to post it with a stamp, but that's the only cost involved). This year, the closing date for letters is Fri 2 Dec. See our full Free Santa Letter details.

It's coming

Amex £5 cashback at local shops, for about 2 weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Sat 04 Dec
  • 2020: Sat 05 Dec
  • 2019: Sat 07 Dec
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? This deal is coming!

Confirmed start date: Sat 3 Dec

 

From Sat 3 Dec to Mon 12 Dec, American Express cardholders (some exclusions), can get £5 cashback when spending £15+ at selected local businesses including restaurants, clothes shops and hairdressers after registering their Amex with the Shop Small website. See our full Amex Shop Small analysis

If you see a good deal for something you need around this time, or closer to Christmas, it may be safer to pounce on it. Previously, many have waited for retailers to boost sales after Christmas and sometimes again in mid-January.

December 5th - 11th

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It's on

Free Santa letter (Royal Mail), deadline Fri 9 Dec

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 10 Dec
  • 2020: Fri 11 Dec
  • 2019: Fri 06 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Some companies charge up to £10 to reply to kids' letters to Father Christmas. Yet if you apply to Royal Mail, you could get a response from Santa for the price of a return stamp (95p first class, 68p second class). The deadline this year is Fri 9 Dec. See our full Free Santa Letter details.

Prediction

The Body Shop 40% off most items, for about a week

When it started
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Thu 06 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 5 Dec

 

Similar to previous years, we didn't see The Body Shop run its 40% off deal in 2021, so we're doubtful it'll return this year. However, if it does, look out for it on Mon 5 Dec. The Body Shop is renowned for running promotions throughout the year, so it's rare you'll ever need to pay full-price. Check our The Body Shop page for updates. 

Prediction

Lidl £10 off £40 voucher via newspaper

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 09 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 10 Dec
  • 2019: Fri 08 Nov
  • 2018: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 8 Dec

 

For the last few years, we've seen a voucher in newspapers for £10 off a £40 spend at Lidl. In 2019 it was in the second week of November, but the last two years it's been in the second week of December. Last year it was available for free in the Metro on Thu 9 Dec and Fri 10 Dec, and in the i and Daily Mail from Thu 9 Dec - Sat 12 Dec. In 2020 it was in The Sun. We'd predict it'll be in the Metro and Daily Mail again this year, from Thu 8 Dec. Keep an eye on our Lidl page for updates.

Prediction

M&S 30% off Christmas decorations, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 09 Dec
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Tue 10 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 18 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 8 Dec

 

Last year, M&S offered 30% off selected Christmas products, including Christmas trees, decorations and baubles. However, we had to do a bit of digging to find this offer and there wasn't a landing page for the deal. It didn't seem as big as previous years where the offer was between 30-50% off. We prediect it'll run again on Thu 8 Dec, but like last year, you may have to search through the site to find it. Keep an eye on our M&S page for updates. 

Prediction

Half-price No7 beauty 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2021: Wed 08 Dec
  • 2020: Wed 09 Dec
  • 2019: Wed 11 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 14 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 7 Dec

 

Based on 2019, 2020 and 2021, we're predicting that the No7 gift set will be half-price from Wed 7 Dec this year. It's usually a set that normally costs around £80 and contains skin-care and make-up. Keep an eye on our No7 page for updates. 

December 12th - 18th

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Prediction

14p cheap Christmas veg, supermarket price war

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 13 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 17 Dec
  • 2019: Mon 16 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 12 Dec

 

For the last few years, supermarkets have started battling in a price-war over Christmas vegetables a few days before Christmas. Last year, Tesco was first with veg reduced to 29p on Mon 13 Dec. Aldi followed, reducing veg to 19p on Thu 16 Dec. Lidl and Asda usually want a slice of the action too, so look out for them during that week too. Last year Lidl went as low as 15p, while Aldi was un-beet-able at 14p. Keep your eyes peeled for cheap veg updates

Prediction

British Airways 'January' sale, until 25 Jan

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 16 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 17 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 15 Dec

 

In the past three years, British Airways has launched its sale about a week before Christmas – normally always on the Thursday before. Last year we spotted return flights from Heathrow to New York for £324 and London to Dubai for £284 return. We'd expect to see a similar sale this year, returning on Thu 15 Dec, so don't forget to check-in then for more details.

Prediction

Ikea 'up to 50% off' winter sale, online and in stores

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 13 Dec
  • 2020: Tue 01 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 12 Dec

 

Ikea has changed its sale dates in recent years. In 2018 and 2019, the 'up to 50% off' winter sale started on the Thursdays before Christmas. However, in 2020 it began earlier on Tue 1 Dec, then last year it started on Mon 13 Dec. This makes it trickier to predict for 2022, but we'd imagine the sale will start on Mon 12 Dec based on last year's date and could last until mid Jan. Keep an eye out on our Ikea page for updates.

Prediction

John Lewis 30% off Christmas decorations, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 17 Dec
  • 2020: Tue 15 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 17 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 11 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 16 Dec

 

In the last three years, John Lewis offered 30% off Christmas decorations around 10 days before Christmas. However, in previous years, it offered up to 50% off instead. Last year, the discount applied across Christmas trees, baubles & tree decorations, crackers, cards & wrap and more. We're predicting it'll do the same again from Fri 16 Dec. Check our John Lewis page for updates.

Prediction

Virgin Atlantic winter sale, until 25 Jan

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 17 Dec
  • 2020: Tue 15 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 17 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 16 Dec

 

For the last few years, we've seen Virgin Atlantic launch its 'Winter sale' a week or so before Xmas. We predict to see its deals flying in from Fri 16 Dec this year.  In 2021, we spotted Heathrow to New York return flights from £324 & Heathrow to Tel Aviv from £278 return. The sale was valid on flights departing up until 24 Dec 2022 which offers you great flexibility on dates, but we'd advise going quick as cheap flights will likely sell out.

This is where we'd usually expect to see more of the big sales start, and some existing sales boost to larger discounts – usually up to 70% off, though some years we’ve seen boosts of up to 90% off.

December 19th - 25th

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Prediction

Argos up to 50% off sale, lasts a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Sat 25 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Wed 25 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sun 25 Dec
 

For the last few years, Argos has started its sale online on Christmas Day and in stores on Boxing Day. However, in 2020 it threw in a curveball and started online on Christmas Eve. Though last year it was back to Christmas Day again. It's usually billed as 'up to 50% off' on items across home, furniture, appliances, jewellery and more. We'd expect it to follow the normal pattern and start on Christmas Day online this year. See our Argos page for the latest updates.

Prediction

Asos up to 70% off sale, likely to boost to up to 80% off

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 20 Dec
  • 2020: Mon 21 Dec
  • 2019: Fri 20 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 19 Dec

 

In the past, Asos has started it's up to 50% off 'January sale' on the Friday before Christmas, however in the last couple of years it changed things slightly and started on the Monday. The sale usually starts strong at 'up to 70% off', then boosts a week later to 80% off. We'd expect to see the same this year, starting on Mon 19 Dec. See our Asos deals page for updates. 

Prediction

Body Shop up to 50% off sale, lasting a few weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 24 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 24 Dec

 

For the last four years, Body Shop brings Christmas to you a little earlier by kicking off it's 'up to 50% off' sale on Christmas Eve. We'd expect the same to happen this year, and start on Sat 24 Dec. The sale is normally both online and in stores and we don't usually see it boost any further.  See The Body Shop deals for the latest updates.

Prediction

Boots up to 50% off sale, likely to boost in stores in Jan/Feb

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 23 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 23 Dec

 

In previous years, Boots has kicked up off its 'up to 50% off' sale online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. Last year, it launched its sale slighty earlier online on Thu 23 Dec (the in store sale was still on Boxing Day), so we expect to see the same this year on Fri 23 Dec. The sale usually boosts to 'up to 70% off' towards the end of January, in stores only.  See our Boots page for updates. 

Prediction

Easyjet 25% off 800,000 seats, lasting until 11 Jan

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 23 Dec
  • 2020: Wed 23 Dec
  • 2019: Mon 23 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 23 Dec

 

For the last few years, Easyjet's launched its 'up to 20% off' seat sale around a week before Xmas, but since 2019 it's started a few days later on the 23 Dec. Last year, there were 800,000 seats available for selected flights between January and September 2022. You could book until Sun 11 Jan, or until all seats had gone. We reckon these seat prices will be flying out, so go quickly if this is something you're after.

Prediction

H&M up to 50% off sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 20 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 17 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 19 Dec

 

From 2016 to 2018, H&M started it's up to 60% off sale the Friday before Christmas, however in 2019 and 2020 it started it a day early on the Thursday. And to keep us on our toes, last year it started on the Monday before Christmas. Even though the sale is billed at 'up to 50% off', in 2021 we spotted a few items with a higher discount than this. Usually, the sale boosts to up to 70% off around New Years Eve too. We predict it'll return Mon 19 December _ see our H&M page for updates. 

Prediction

John Lewis up to 50% off sale, not likely to boost further

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 24 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 24 Dec

 

John Lewis usually starts its 'January sale' online on Christmas Eve, having done this consistently since 2015. Last year it started in store on Monday 27 December. It doesn't actually bill its clearance as 'up to 50% off', but in 2021 we spotted up to 50% off clothing and up to 40% off home & garden and sports & leisure. We don't usually see the discount increase any further, so go quick if you're after something. We'd expect this to start on Sat 24 Dec this year. See John Lewis deals for updates.

Prediction

Kurt Geiger 50% off sale items online & in stores

When it started
  • 2021: Mon 20 Dec
  • 2020: Fri 04 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 12 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 13 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 19 Dec

 

This one surprised us last year and started later than we expected, on Mon 20 Dec. For the previous four years, Kurt Geiger's up to 50% off sale started in mid-December, giving you time to get last minute gifts in the sale before Christmas. This year we'd expect it to kick off on Mon 19 Dec. For the last four years, Kurt Geiger boosted the sale post-Christmas to up to 70% off. Keep an eye on our Kurt Geiger page for updates.

Prediction

Matalan up to 50% off sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 24 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 24 Dec

 

For the last five years, Matalan has kicked off its 'up to 50% off' Boxing Day sale on Christmas Eve online and on Boxing Day in stores. It's likely to boost to up to 70% off in January. We'd expect to see the same as last year and for this to start on Christmas Eve. See our Matalan page for updates.

Prediction

M&S up to 50% off sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 24 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 24 Dec

 

One of the big ones that MoneySavers wait for, M&S usually starts its 'up to 50% off' sale online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. We expect the same again this year with it starting on Sat 24 Dec. We usually see the sale boost to 'up to 60% off' on at the beginning of January, then boost further a couple of weeks later to 'up to 70% off' in mid Jan. In previous years, we've then soon it boost to as much as up to 90% off in stores at the end of January. See our M&S page for updates.

Prediction

Next at least 50% off sale, for a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2021: Fri 24 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 24 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 24 Dec

 

As it does every year, we'd expect the Next 'Boxing Day' sale to start online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. Always a popular one with MoneySavers as the discount is at least 50% off. We've not seen the discount increase any further in previous years, so we wouldn't expect it to this year. So if there's something you're after, it might be worth buying before stock sells out. We'd expect this to start on Sat 24 Dec, so keep an eye out for Next updates

December 26th - 31st

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Prediction

Amazon up to 50%ish off sale, from Boxing Day

When it started
  • 2021: Sun 26 Dec
  • 2020: Sat 26 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 26 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 26 Dec

 

For the last six years on Boxing Day, Amazon has offered 24-hour 'Deals of the Day' and one off deals everything five minutes. While it doesn't give the sale a discount amount, from what we usually see 'up to 50% off' is a fair summary. In the past, we've seen decent deals from big brands including Philips, Oral B, Fitbit and Bosch. We'd still expect this sale to start on Boxing Day again, and end on New Years Eve. See our Amazon deals page for updates.

Prediction

Asos up to 70% off sale likely to boost to up to 80% off

When it started
  • 2021: Tue 28 Dec
  • 2020: Wed 30 Dec
  • 2019: Sat 28 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 28 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Wed 28 Dec

 

For the last few years, Asos has boosted its sale around 28-30 Dec. Last year, Asos boosted its 'up to 60% off' to 'up to 70% off' on Tue 28 Dec. We'd expect it to do the same this year and predict it'll boost on Wed 28 Dec. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. Keep an eye on our Asos page for updates. 

Prediction

H&M up to 60% off sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2021: Tue 28 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 31 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 31 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 03 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Tue 27 Dec

 

For the last couple of years, the H&M sale has boosted to 'up to 70% off' on 31 Dec. However last year, it came early on Tue 28 Dec, so we reckon it'll do the same this year, boosting on Wed 28 Dec. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. Keep an eye on our H&M page for updates. 

Prediction

Mulberry up to 50% off sale, not likely to boost any further

When it started
  • 2021: Sun 26 Dec
  • 2020: Thu 31 Dec
  • 2019: Thu 26 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 26 Dec

 

Let's be honest, £900 handbags certaintly aren't MoneySaving. However... if you're going to buy one anyway and can afford it, you might as well get it while there's a decent discount to be had. Mulberry usually starts its up to 50% off 'January sale' on Boxing Day, both online and in stores. We'd expect to see the same again this year, so keep an eye on our Mulberry page for updates.

Prediction

Ryanair 500,000 seats from £9.99, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2021: Thu 30 Dec
  • 2020: Didn't Happen
  • 2019: Mon 30 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 31 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 30 Dec

 

For the last few years, we've seen Ryanair offer 500,000 seats from £9.99, for a few days over New Years. In 2021, the sale started on Thu 30 Dec, with 25% off 500,000 seats, until Sun 5 Jan. Some deals we spotted included Bristol to Venice for £9.98 return and London Stansted to Barcelona for £19.98 return. We predict to see a similar sale return this year on Fri 30 Dec.

Prediction

Travelodge 25% off selected stays, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2021: Sun 26 Dec
  • 2020: Sat 26 Dec
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 26 Dec

 

In previous years, Travelodge has offered a deal at the end of December for selected dates the following year. In 2020, from Sat 26 Dec until Fri 1 Jan, you could get up to 25% off selected stays, then in 2021, from Sun 26 Dec you could get 50% off the cheapest night when you booked a 2+ night stay. We're not sure exactly what the sale will be this year, but predict it'll start on Boxing Day. See Travelodge deals for updates.

January 2023

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

January 1st - 8th

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Prediction

Carluccio's 2for1 for £1 voucher, for a few weeks

When it started
  • 2022: Didn't Happen
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Thu 02 Jan
  • 2019: Thu 03 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 2 Jan

 

Italian restaurant chain Carluccio's used to offer a rare 2for1 voucher in the first week of January, but we've not seen it do this for a couple of years now – though that's been the case with most restaurant deals since the pandemic. Previously if you ordered two main courses, you got the cheapest for £1. It rarely offers discounts, so this deal is worth looking out for. If it does happen, we predict it could start on Mon 2 Jan. Keep an eye on our Restaurant Vouchers page for updates.

Prediction

Eurostar £58 return (Jan-Mar trips)

When it started
  • 2022: Tue 01 Feb
  • 2021: Tue 05 Jan
  • 2020: Tue 07 Jan
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 4 Jan

 

In previous years, from the beginning to mid January, you could grab £58 return train tickets to Paris, Lille, Calais or Brussels from London St Pancras, Ebsfleet or Ashford International, in Eurostar's January sale. In 2022 it didn't happen until Tue 1 Feb, so it's a little tricky to predict when this will happen this year, but it could start on Wed 4 Jan this year. Stay right on track for a bargain by keeping an eye on our Eurostar deals page. 

Prediction

M&S up to 50% off sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2022: Didn't Happen
  • 2021: Didn't Happen
  • 2020: Wed 15 Jan
  • 2019: Thu 10 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Wed 11 Jan
 

In the last few years, M&S has boosted it's sale to 'up to 70% off' in the second week of Jan. We then see it boost further into clearance in mid-Jan to 'up to 90% off'. We didn't see it boost at all in the last two years, so it may not again this year. However, based on previous years, if it does boost we're predicting it'll be on Wed 11 Jan. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. See our M&S page for updates.

Prediction

The Sun '£9.50' holidays via tokens, collect in newspaper

When it started
  • 2022: Sat 08 Jan
  • 2021: Sat 09 Jan
  • 2020: Sat 04 Jan
  • 2019: Sat 05 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 7 Jan

 

Historically, we've seen The Sun offer its '£9.50' holidays at the beginning of January – and 2022 was no exception, as the offer was on from Sat 8 Jan until Tue 1 Feb. In reality, they're never actually £9.50, but if you dodged the costly extras you could get a trip for four people for £44. We'd expect this to start again next year on Sat 7 Jan. See our Sun Holidays guide for updates.