Christmas Deals Predictor
2019

Our calendar predicting the hottest deals, vouchers and codes

We've analysed nine years of deals to forecast 2019's offers. Nothing's guaranteed – the aim is to help you pick when to pounce and bag planned Christmas shopping for less. Remember, only ever buy what you need and can afford. Last year, we got it 93% right, so peek into our crystal ball...

Frequently Asked Questions

  • To save you money, of course! Pre-Christmas, when retailers launch discount codes, they have one main aim – they want to avoid giving discounts to people who would buy in their stores anyway and instead target price-conscious consumers who are looking around on impulse for somewhere to shop.

    That’s why they launch codes, sales or discounts only for a very short amount of time in the run-up to Christmas, as opposed to the lengthy January sales.

    What we want to do is help people who know where they want to shop to be ready to pounce at the perfect moment to take advantage of those offers. If you like, perverting the marketing plans of Britain’s big retailers.

    To get the best out of our Christmas Deals Predictor it’s best to know what you want to buy and where it’s sold. Then use the calendar to plan your spending and hope you’ll be able to get what you want at a much reduced price.

  • Last year, 72% of deals came out exactly as we predicted. Add in those we were only marginally out on and we had an astonishing 93% success rate.

  • This is something we worried about when we launched this for the first time in 2013. Stores primarily launch discounts to tempt in customers who wouldn’t normally buy. The fact we’re doing this is somewhat market disruptive as our aim is to show those who’ve planned to buy how to take advantage. Our fear was that the retailers would move or cancel their promotions as a result. Thankfully, it hasn't had that impact for the past few years, and we hope it won’t this year either.

November 2019

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

November 11th - 17th

< >
It's gone

AO.com discounts on 100s of items, lasting about 3 weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 12 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 13 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As in previous years, AO.com discounted a number of products in the run up to Black Friday, but this year from Wed 13 Nov through to Mon 2 Dec. It had around 900ish deals online, but a lot of items could be found for the same price elsewhere as AO promised to price match other retailers.

It's gone

Shell Energy cheapest standard broadband '£10.74/mth'

When it started
  • 2018: N/A
  • 2017: N/A
  • 2016: N/A
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Thorntons 3for2 on Christmas gifts, lasting about a month

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 05 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 06 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 09 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
IT'S GONE. Since 2017, Thorntons has been cutting back on its promotional activity and it’s done the same this year. Instead of its usual 15% off code (20% in previous years), it’s offering 3for2 on Christmas gifts, plus 10% off online orders via VoucherCodes.
It's gone

Disney FLASH 24% off toys code, ends Wed 13 Nov

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 13 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 14 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 15 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 17 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As it'd done in previous years, you were able to get 24% off toys and costumes online at ShopDisney from Tue 12 Nov to Wed 13 Nov. The code was valid on around 800 items across toys and costumes.

It's gone

Habitat 25% off code valid on almost everything, ends Sun

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Like it had done for the past four years, Habitat offered 25% off just about everything from Wed 13 Nov to Sun 17 Nov, you entered the code HAB25 at the checkout. The discount was also applied automatically at the till in Habitat's stores, as well as Mini Habitat stores in Sainsbury's.

It's gone

Nectar double-up at Sainsbury's, via app till Tue 19 Nov

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 12 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 15 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 16 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 18 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Sainsbury's surprised us by starting the double-up promo a couple of weeks earlier than we predicted. You could swap points for vouchers online between Wed 30 Oct and Tue 5 Nov, or via the Nectar app between Wed 13 and Tue 19 Nov.

November 18th - 24th

< >
It's gone

Amazon 'lightning' & daily deals, lasting for 8 days

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 17 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 14 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

Confirmed! Starting Fri 22 Nov

For the last couple of years, Amazon has started to pump out Black Friday deals, with daily deals and new offers appearing at regular intervals, from a week before Black Friday until Cyber Monday. We usually find that the best deals are on Black Friday itself, but last year we saw some of it's Alexa devices at a low price all week. 

See our full Amazon eight days of deals analysis.

It's gone

Ted Baker half-price 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 30 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 02 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 13 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A week earlier than we prerdicted, Boots discounted its Ted Baker 'Suite Harmony' skincare set to £25 (norm £50), from Wed 20 Nov to Thu 5 Dec. The gift set included body lotion, body wash, face masks and more, which we reckon would have cost around £63ish if bought individually.

It's gone

Ikea buy £29 real Xmas tree, get £20 voucher, till Xmas Eve

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

La Redoute 40% off everything code for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 17 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
IT'S GONE. Similar to last year, La Redoute offered 40% off everything for Black Friday. It started early on Thu 15 Nov and ended on Tue 27 Nov 2018. The discount included many popular brands, eg, Levi's, Converse and Superdry.
It's gone

Tesco 25% off 6 bottles of wine, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 22 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, you could get 25% off when you bought six or more bottles of wine, sparkling wine (including prosecco) or champange. The deal was available online and in larger stores.

Prediction

Boots half-price Sanctuary Spa 'Star Gift' set

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Wed 20 Nov

 

Boots is shaking things up a little this year, so it's not as easy for us to predict as in the past. We've noticed it's been launching its offers on Wednesdays rather than Fridays as it used to, so we're predicting the ever-popular Sanctuary Spa gift set will be half-price on Wed 20 Nov. It's usually a set that would normally cost £45ish reduced to about £23. 

Black Friday is on Fri 29 Nov this year. However, we see many retailers start sales much earlier than this. See our full Black Friday 2019 analysis.

November 25th - 30th

< >
It's gone

Apple 'free' gift card with big purchase, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, Apple offered 'free' gift cards of up to £160 with selected large purchases during its Black Friday "shopping event", from Fri 29 Nov to Mon 2 Dec. 

It's gone

Asos up to 70% off everything, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Asos kicked off it's Black Friday offer on Thu 28 Nov, until 8am on Tue 3 Dec. The deal was slightly different to what we predicted as this year it offered up to 70% off everything. From what we saw, most items were reduced by around 10%-20, but we did spot some higher discounts, eg, a dress for £23 (norm £78) and Reebok trainers for £39 (were £65).

It's gone

Benefit 20% off code, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, you could get 20% off at make-up and skincare brand Benefit when you entered the code BFF at checkout, from Fri 29 Nov to 11.59pm on Sun 1 Dec. If you spent £65 or more, you got 25% off and if you spent £100 or more, you got 30% off.

It's gone

Debenhams up to 50% off, for about 2 weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 22 Nov
  • 2015: Mon 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, Debenhams kicked off its 'up to 50% off' Black Friday sale on Mon 25 Nov and ended at 11.59pm on Mon 2 Dec. In general, there was up to 50% off womenswear, menswear, electricals and toys, up to 30% off home and kids, and up to 20% off gifts. There was also different daily offers each day.

It's gone

Dyson daily deals for Black Friday, likely till Cyber Mon

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

You could get £100 off selected items online at Dyson for Black Friday, until Tue 3 Dec. Dyson was also offering a Black Friday price promise where it would refund the difference if you find it cheaper at Argos, Currys and John Lewis within seven days of purchase.

It's gone

eBay daily discounts & price matching, for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 22 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Similar to the last few years, eBay released deals every hour throughout the Black Friday weekend, from 8am to 8pm everyday until Mon 2 Dec. From what we saw, the deals in general were a bit hit and miss, and only on selected products and retailers.

It's gone

French Connection up to 50%, lasting a few days

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

Fashion retailer French Connection offered 30% off full-price items online and in stores for Black Friday, from Mon 25 Nov to Mon 2 Dec. The offer was slightly different than the 'up to 50% off' sale that we predicted it would do.

It's gone

PS4, Xbox & Switch deals at Game, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As predicted, Game offered reduced prices on consoles and games for the week of Black Friday, but saved its stronger offers until 6pm on Thu 28 Nov. While Game used to be a big player on Black Friday, this year's sale was a lot more subued and many products we looked at were actually cheaper elsewhere.

It's gone

Gap 50% off everything online & in store, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slighty stronger than in previous years, Gap offered 50% off everything online and 'up to' 50% off all full-price items in stores as part of its Black Friday promotions, until 11.59pm on Tue 3 Dec.

It's gone

H&M 20% off incl sale, for 4 days over Black Friday

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, H&M offered 20% off evertything in stores and online for Black Friday, until 11.59pm on Fri 29 Nov. There was no code needed - the discount was applied automatically either at the checkout online or at the till in store. 

It's gone

John Lewis discounts, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Always one of the strong performers on Black Friday, like last year John Lewis discounted a number of high-end products and also proactively matched the prices of its high-street competitors. We spotted a £19 Google Home Mini (norm £49) and a £149 Ring video doorball (norm £229). It offered discounts on items across electrical, home, fashion, beauty, toys.

It's gone

Kurt Geiger 20% off code, lasting about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

About a week earlier than we predicted, Kurt Geiger kicked off its 20% off most items 'Rainbow Event', from Wed 21 Nov through Black Friday weekend. There was also up to 50% off selected items, but these changed daily.

It's gone

40% off everything at Laura Ashley, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A couple of days earlier than we predicted, Laura Ashley kicked off its 40% off home and fashion Black Friday offer, online and in stores, on Mon 25 Nov until Mon 2 Dec. 

It's gone

Matalan up to 50% off, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Sat 19 Nov
  • 2015: Sat 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

It's gone

Ralph Lauren 20-30% off select items, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As we predicted, Ralph Lauren offered 20% off selected items across men's, women's and kid's fashion it its Black Friday sale, until 11.59pm on Mon 2 Dec. If you were spending £350 or more, the discount increased to 30% off. 

It's gone

Ryanair seat sale, lasting for the week of Black Friday

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, low cost airline Ryanair kicked off a 'Cyber Week' promotion, with a different deal happening every day from Mon 25 Nov until 11.59pm on Tue 3 Dec. When we looked on Fri 29 Nov, there was 25% off one million flights to various destinations, with flights starting at £9.99 each way to Eurpoe and North Africa.

It's gone

Sainsbury's Tu 25% off sale, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 29 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slightly later than we predicted (as we found a last this year as Black Friday was a week later), Sainsbury's offered 25% off its Tu clothing range from Tue 26 Nov to Mon 2 Dec. There was no code needed and the discount was applied automatically in store.

It's gone

ShopDisney up to 50% off 100s of items. Online only, for 4 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

This year for Black Friday, ShopDisney offered 20% off 1,000+ items online (excluding Frozen and Star Wars). The discount was applied automatically and there was no code or voucher needed. Disney said that the offer was also on selected items in store.

It's gone

Selfridges 20% off code, 5 days around Black Friday

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As we predicted, Selfridges offered up to 20% off via an online code or in-store voucher over the Black Friday weekend until 11.59pm on Sun 1 Dec. The full 20% off was valid on selected lines including fashion, homeware and accessories, but beauty was capped at 10% off.

It's gone

25% off everything at Topman, for about 6 days

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Topman kicked off its Black Friday offer as we predicted on Wed 27 Nov. However, the offer was slightly different to what we predicted and this year it offered 25% off everything, online and in stores. The offer ended on Sun 1 Dec.

It's gone

25% off everything at Topshop, for about 6 days

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 22 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Topshop kicked off its Black Friday offer as we predicted on Wed 27 Nov. However, the offer was slightly different to what we predicted and this year it offered 25% off everything, online and in stores. The offer ended on Sun 1 Dec.

It's gone

Urban Outfitters up to 50% off, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

If you went online to Urban Outfitters or into a store, you could get up to 50% off selected items in its Black Friday sale, until Sun 1 Dec. Even though the sale was billed as up to 50% off, we spotted a few items with a higher discount than this, eg, a faux fur jacket for £25 (was £72).

Prediction

£9-£10 champagne in stores, from 3rd week of Nov

When it started
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Thu 28 Nov

 

We didn't see this happen last year, but in the past supermarkets have slashed prices on champagne in the third week of November. In 2017, Lidl's Comte de Senneval champagne was reduced to £10 (norm £11.50), and then to £9 from 23 Nov, though stock would have been limited. Previously, Tesco has sold a similar £9 bottle around Black Friday, so keep an eye out for corking deals on our Food & Drinks deals page.

Prediction

Argos 'free' voucher with purchase, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 28 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 29 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 09 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 11 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Wed 27 Nov

 

For the past two years, Argos has run an offer where, if you spent £50, you get a voucher for £5 off your next purchase. Or if you spent as least £100, you get a £10 voucher instead. If you were bulk buying, you could split your purcahse into several £50 or £100 spends to receive multiple vouchers.

Prediction

50% off Illy coffee machines, for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Mon 25 Nov

 

Last year, Italian coffee company Illy brewed up a Black Friday offer of 50% off its posh coffee machines, lasting about 10 days. However, in 2017 and 2016 the offer was slightly stronger at 55% off. Previously, in 2015 it had been 50% off. We're hedging our bets and predicting it'll be 50% off this year. 

Prediction

M&S 30-50% off beauty etc, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Thu 28 Nov

 

In 2015, 2016 and 2017, M&S had some limited offers available over Black Friday weekend, including up to 50% off beauty sets, skincare and gift sets. M&S always says it isn't taking part in Black Friday and in 2018 it didn't offer anything, but we predict it might offer a few discounts this year - though they may not be labelled 'Black Friday' deals as such. 

Prediction

Plusnet cheapest standard broadband '£10ish/mth'

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 22 Nov
  • 2016: N/A
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Wed 27 Nov

 

Hot, short-lived promos come and go throughout the year - Black Friday is another period of providers offering cheap deals. In 2018 during the Black Friday week, Plusnet offered standard b’band & line for an equiv £10.24/mth over 12mths, factoring in a £75 cheque you needed to claim (Plusnet was also cheapest in 2017). We’ve seen the same week-long ‘£10.24/mth’ Plusnet deal five times in 2019 – so could see it again.

Prediction

TalkTalk standard broadband ‘£12/mth’

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: N/A
  • 2016: N/A
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Thu 28 Nov

 

Deals come and go throughout the year, and Black Friday is just another period of providers offering cheap deals. During Black Friday 2018, TalkTalk had standard b’band for an equiv £12/mth, if you claimed and spent a £60 voucher. We’ve seen other hot deals throughout the year so we think it could offer further promos throughout the Black Friday period.

December 2019

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

December 1st - 8th

< >
It's gone

£10-£40 West End theatre tickets, usually sell fast

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Mon 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
Official London Theatre's confirmed what we expected, that from 10am on Tue 4 Dec, theatre lovers can get £10-£40 tickets for top London shows for performances between Tue 1 Jan and Fri 15 Feb 2019. John Lewis Partnership card holders can take advantage of the offer from 10am on Tue 20 Nov, or from 10am on Fri 23 Nov for Mastercard holders.
It's gone

Amex £5 cashback at local shops, for about 2 weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 28 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 01 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
IT'S GONE. From Sat 1 Dec to Sun 16 Dec, American Express cardholders (some exclusions), could get £5 cashback when spending £10+ at selected local businesses including restaurants, clothes shops, hotels, hairdressers and galleries after registering their Amex with the Shop Small website.
It's gone

Half-price Soap & Glory 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 09 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 11 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
IT'S GONE. Christmas wouldn’t be Christmas without Boots offering a discount on one of its hugely popular Soap & Glory gift sets. You could get a 'Bubble Act' body care set for £30 (norm £60) from Fri 8 Dec. We worked out the products would cost £80 if bought individually.
It's gone

£10 1L Baileys in supermarkets, for about 4 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 29 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 28 Oct
  • 2015: Thu 29 Oct
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

This one caught us out again this year and happened a week later than we were predicting. From Thu 5 Dec to Sun 8 Dec, you could get a big bottle of Baileys Original (1L) for £10 reduced from £20 at Morrisons and Asda. The following week, Tesco offered the same price for Clubcard members (non-Clubcard members could get the bottle for £12. This is the cheapest we usually see the large bottles, so it can be a good time to stock up.

It's gone

Free Santa letter (Royal Mail), deadline Fri 6 Dec

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 09 Dec
  • 2015: Sun 06 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Some companies charge up to £10 to reply to kids' letters to Father Christmas. Yet if you applied to Royal Mail, you could get a response from Santa for the price of a stamp (70p first class, 61p second class). The deadline this year was Fri 6 Dec.

It's gone

Free Santa letter in Braille, deadline Mon 2 Dec

When it started
  • 2019: Sun 01 Dec
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Santa and his elves at the RNIB send Braille, audio or large print replies for free (you needed to post it with a stamp, but that's the only cost involved). This year, the closing date for letters was Mon 2 Dec or Fri 20 Dec for email replies.

It's gone

Topman at least 20% off everything, for 48 hours

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 06 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 07 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 09 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Topman offered 20% off all full-price items from Thu 5 Dec until Tue 10 Dec, when you entered the code MATES at checkout. Delivery was £4 or click and collect was free. This is an improvement on last year, when Topman ran the same discount but only for 48 hours.

Over the last few years, this is where we've started to see some retailers kicking off their 'Boxing Day' and 'January sales'. If you've not done your Christmas shopping yet, it's worth checking from here to see which sales start early. However, if you can wait, we often see sales boost further after Christmas and sometimes again in mid-January.

December 9th - 15th

< >
It's gone

Kurt Geiger 'up to 50% off' sale, could boost after Christmas

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 13 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 14 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 15 Dec
  • 2015: Mon 14 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, Kurt Geiger kicked off its 'up to 50% off' sale on Thu 12 Dec, giving you time to get last minute gifts in the sale before Christmas.

It's gone

Miss Selfridge 'up to 50% off ' sale, likely to boost to 70%

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 13 Dec
  • 2017: Wed 13 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 14 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 16 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Starting just a day earlier than we predicted, Miss Selfridge kicked off it's 'up to 50% off' sale on Wed 11 Dec. When we checked on Wed 11 Dec, there were over 1,900 items included in the sale, across all products. This was its 'Boxing Day' sale and based on last year, we expected it to boost to up to 70% off everything on Christmas Day online and Boxing Day in stores.

It's gone

M&S 30% off Xmas decorations etc, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 18 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 19 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 14 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 12 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

M&S kicked off its 30% off selected Christmas decorations and gifts, including Christmas trees, decorations, candles and selected gifts, a week earlier than we predcited on Tue 10 Dec. 

It's gone

Half-price No7 beauty 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 14 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 15 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 16 Dec
  • 2015: Mon 14 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As we've seen in the past few years, Boots offered a half-price No7 gift set. The 'Best Face Forward' set was available for £39 until Christmas Eve. The gift set, which included day cream, night cream and mascara was normally £80, but if bought individually the products would have cost £156ish, so getting it all for £39 was a substantial saving.

Prediction

The Body Shop 40% off most items, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 06 Dec
  • 2017: Mon 11 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 12 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 10 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
IT'S GONE. The Body Shop is renowned for running promotions throughout the year, so it’s rare you’ll ever need to pay full-price. Similar to previous years, it offered a code for 40% off most items. However unlike last year, there was no 'free' gift if you spent over £15.

December 16th - 22nd

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It's gone

Asos 'up to 60% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 21 Dec
  • 2015: Mon 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

British Airways 'January' sale, until 30 Jan

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 20 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 19 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

H&M 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 23 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 23 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Ikea 'up to 50% off' winter sale, online and in stores

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 17 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Topman 'up to 60% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Topshop 'up to 60% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Virgin Atlantic winter sale, likely until 31 Jan

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 14 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

19p cheap Christmas veg, supermarket price war

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Wed 20 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 20 Dec
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A few days earlier than we were predicting, Aldi started the supermarket price-war over Christmas vegetables and reduced the price of selected veg to 19p, from Mon 16 Dec. However, a couple of days later Lidl quickly followed with 15p veg, with Aldi soon dropping it's prices to match - before Tesco entered the ring with 19p-29p veg. Aldi and Lidl offered Brussels sprouts (500g), carrots (1kg), parnsips (500g) and more for just 15p.

It's gone

John Lewis 30% off Christmas decorations, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 11 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 12 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 13 Dec
  • 2015: Tue 15 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A week later than we were predicting, John Lewis offered up to 30% off Christmas decorations, from Tue 17 Dec. The discounts were on a range of Christmas items, including trees, decorations, baubles, lights, candles and crackers. It could've been a good time to stock up for next Christmas (or this year if you hadn't decorated yet).

This is where we expect to see more of the big sales start, and some existing sales boost to larger discounts – usually up to 70% off, though some years we’ve seen boosts of up to 90% off. Bear in mind, as stores try to clear stock there’s a trade off… wait for a bigger discount and supply becomes limited. So there's a risk items you want could sell out.

December 23rd - 31st

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It's gone

Argos up to 50% off sale, lasts a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 25 Dec
  • 2017: Mon 25 Dec
  • 2016: Sun 25 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

Asos 'up to 60% off' sale likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 28 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 29 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 30 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 31 Dec
likelihood
It's gone

Body Shop 'up to 50% off' sale, lasting a few weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
  • 2015: Tue 22 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Boots 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost in stores in Jan/Feb

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Debenhams up to 50% off sale, likely to boost

When it started
  • 2018: Sun 23 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Easyjet up to 20% off flights sale, lasting until Jan

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

Easyjet launched its 'up to 20% off' seat sale on Mon 23 Dec. There were 300,000 sale seats available for selected flights between 30 Jan and 2 Jul 2020. You could book until Mon 20 Jan or until all seats had been snapped up. We spotted return flights from Gatwick to Majorca from £29 and to Marrakech from £44.

It's gone

H&M 'up to 60% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 02 Jan
  • 2018: Wed 03 Jan
  • 2017: Tue 03 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

John Lewis 'up to 50% off' sale, not likely to boost further

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Matalan 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

M&S 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Mulberry 'up to 50% off' sale, not likely to boost any further

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Next 'at least 50% off' sale, for a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Ryanair 500,000 seats from £9.99, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 31 Dec
  • 2017: Sat 30 Dec
  • 2016: N/A
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Topman 'up to 60% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 05 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
  • 2015: Wed 07 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Topshop 'up to 60% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 05 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
  • 2015: Thu 15 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Amazon 'up to 50%ish off' sale, from Boxing Day

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

From Boxing Day until Tue 31 Dec, one-off deals could be found on Amazon across all categories. Some of its strongest recudtions are in the form of 'Deals of the Day', with items reduced up to 75% for just 24 hours.

It's gone

Travelodge 30% off selected stays, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

January 2020

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

January 1st - 5th

< >
It's gone

Carluccio's 2for1 for £1 voucher, for a few weeks

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 03 Jan
  • 2018: Thu 04 Jan
  • 2017: Wed 04 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Debenhams 'Blue Cross' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 03 Jan
  • 2017: Wed 04 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
  • 2015: Wed 07 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Eurostar £58 return (Jan-Mar trips)

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Tue 02 Jan
  • 2017: Wed 04 Jan
  • 2016: Fri 30 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

The Sun '£9.50' holidays via tokens, collect in newspaper

When it started
  • 2019: Sat 05 Jan
  • 2018: Sat 06 Jan
  • 2017: Sat 07 Jan
  • 2016: Sat 09 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

Predicted start date: Sat 4 Jan

Historically, we've seen The Sun offer its '£9.50' holidays at the beginning of January – and 2018 was no exception. In reality, they're never actually £9.50, but if you dodged the costly extras you could get a trip for four people for £44.

January 6th - 12th

Prediction

M&S 'up to 50% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 10 Jan
  • 2018: Mon 15 Jan
  • 2017: Tue 10 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 19 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!