Christmas Deals Predictor
2019

Our calendar predicting the hottest deals, vouchers and codes

We've analysed nine years of deals to forecast 2019's offers. Nothing's guaranteed – the aim is to help you pick when to pounce and bag planned Christmas shopping for less. Remember, only ever buy what you need and can afford. Last year, we got it 93% right, so peek into our crystal ball...

Frequently Asked Questions

  • To save you money, of course! Pre-Christmas, when retailers launch discount codes, they have one main aim – they want to avoid giving discounts to people who would buy in their stores anyway and instead target price-conscious consumers who are looking around on impulse for somewhere to shop.

    That’s why they launch codes, sales or discounts only for a very short amount of time in the run-up to Christmas, as opposed to the lengthy January sales.

    What we want to do is help people who know where they want to shop to be ready to pounce at the perfect moment to take advantage of those offers. If you like, perverting the marketing plans of Britain’s big retailers.

    To get the best out of our Christmas Deals Predictor it’s best to know what you want to buy and where it’s sold. Then use the calendar to plan your spending and hope you’ll be able to get what you want at a much reduced price.

  • Last year, 72% of deals came out exactly as we predicted. Add in those we were only marginally out on and we had an astonishing 93% success rate.

  • This is something we worried about when we launched this for the first time in 2013. Stores primarily launch discounts to tempt in customers who wouldn’t normally buy. The fact we’re doing this is somewhat market disruptive as our aim is to show those who’ve planned to buy how to take advantage. Our fear was that the retailers would move or cancel their promotions as a result. Thankfully, it hasn't had that impact for the past few years, and we hope it won’t this year either.

November 2019

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

November 11th - 17th

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It's gone

AO.com discounts on 100s of items, lasting about 3 weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 12 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 13 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As in previous years, AO.com discounted a number of products in the run up to Black Friday, but this year from Wed 13 Nov through to Mon 2 Dec. It had around 900ish deals online, but a lot of items could be found for the same price elsewhere as AO promised to price match other retailers.

It's gone

Shell Energy cheapest standard broadband '£10.74/mth'

When it started
  • 2018: N/A
  • 2017: N/A
  • 2016: N/A
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's on

Thorntons 3for2 on Christmas gifts, lasting about a month

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 05 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 06 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 09 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Thorntons has suprised us this year and started it's 3for2 on Christmas gifts a couple of weeks earlier than we predicted. It started on Thu 7 Nov and will end on Tue 24 Dec. In the past, it used to release a 15-20% off code, so it's not as strong a deal as previous years.

It's gone

Disney FLASH 24% off toys code, ends Wed 13 Nov

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 13 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 14 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 15 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 17 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As it'd done in previous years, you were able to get 24% off toys and costumes online at ShopDisney from Tue 12 Nov to Wed 13 Nov. The code was valid on around 800 items across toys and costumes.

It's gone

Habitat 25% off code valid on almost everything, ends Sun

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Like it had done for the past four years, Habitat offered 25% off just about everything from Wed 13 Nov to Sun 17 Nov, you entered the code HAB25 at the checkout. The discount was also applied automatically at the till in Habitat's stores, as well as Mini Habitat stores in Sainsbury's.

It's gone

Nectar double-up at Sainsbury's, via app till Tue 19 Nov

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 12 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 15 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 16 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 18 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Sainsbury's surprised us by starting the double-up promo a couple of weeks earlier than we predicted. You could swap points for vouchers online between Wed 30 Oct and Tue 5 Nov, or via the Nectar app between Wed 13 and Tue 19 Nov.

November 18th - 24th

< >
It's gone

Amazon 'lightning' & daily deals, lasting for 8 days

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 17 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 14 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

Confirmed! Starting Fri 22 Nov

For the last couple of years, Amazon has started to pump out Black Friday deals, with daily deals and new offers appearing at regular intervals, from a week before Black Friday until Cyber Monday. We usually find that the best deals are on Black Friday itself, but last year we saw some of it's Alexa devices at a low price all week. 

See our full Amazon eight days of deals analysis.

It's gone

Ted Baker half-price 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 30 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 02 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 13 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A week earlier than we prerdicted, Boots discounted its Ted Baker 'Suite Harmony' skincare set to £25 (norm £50), from Wed 20 Nov to Thu 5 Dec. The gift set included body lotion, body wash, face masks and more, which we reckon would have cost around £63ish if bought individually.

It's on

Ikea buy £29 real Xmas tree, get £20 voucher, till Xmas Eve

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

From Thu 21 Nov, until Tue 24 Dec (if stock lasts), buy a £29 real Christmas tree from Ikea and you'll be given a £20 voucher to spend at any participating store between 13 Jan and 23 Feb 2020. As long as you'd spend £20 at Ikea anyway it means you effectively get a £9 tree. Go quick though, as this is always popular and the trees can sell out. See our full Ikea '£9' Christmas tree analysis.

It's gone

La Redoute 40% off everything code for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 17 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
IT'S GONE. Similar to last year, La Redoute offered 40% off everything for Black Friday. It started early on Thu 15 Nov and ended on Tue 27 Nov 2018. The discount included many popular brands, eg, Levi's, Converse and Superdry.
It's gone

Tesco 25% off 6 bottles of wine, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 22 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, you could get 25% off when you bought six or more bottles of wine, sparkling wine (including prosecco) or champange. The deal was available online and in larger stores.

Prediction

Boots half-price Sanctuary Spa 'Star Gift' set

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Wed 20 Nov

 

Boots is shaking things up a little this year, so it's not as easy for us to predict as in the past. We've noticed it's been launching its offers on Wednesdays rather than Fridays as it used to, so we're predicting the ever-popular Sanctuary Spa gift set will be half-price on Wed 20 Nov. It's usually a set that would normally cost £45ish reduced to about £23. 

Black Friday is on Fri 29 Nov this year. However, we see many retailers start sales much earlier than this. See our full Black Friday 2019 analysis.

November 25th - 30th

< >
It's gone

Apple 'free' gift card with big purchase, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, Apple offered 'free' gift cards of up to £160 with selected large purchases during its Black Friday "shopping event", from Fri 29 Nov to Mon 2 Dec. 

It's gone

Asos up to 70% off everything, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Asos kicked off it's Black Friday offer on Thu 28 Nov, until 8am on Tue 3 Dec. The deal was slightly different to what we predicted as this year it offered up to 70% off everything. From what we saw, most items were reduced by around 10%-20, but we did spot some higher discounts, eg, a dress for £23 (norm £78) and Reebok trainers for £39 (were £65).

It's gone

Benefit 20% off code, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, you could get 20% off at make-up and skincare brand Benefit when you entered the code BFF at checkout, from Fri 29 Nov to 11.59pm on Sun 1 Dec. If you spent £65 or more, you got 25% off and if you spent £100 or more, you got 30% off.

It's gone

Debenhams up to 50% off, for about 2 weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 22 Nov
  • 2015: Mon 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, Debenhams kicked off its 'up to 50% off' Black Friday sale on Mon 25 Nov and ended at 11.59pm on Mon 2 Dec. In general, there was up to 50% off womenswear, menswear, electricals and toys, up to 30% off home and kids, and up to 20% off gifts. There was also different daily offers each day.

It's gone

Dyson daily deals for Black Friday, likely till Cyber Mon

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

You could get £100 off selected items online at Dyson for Black Friday, until Tue 3 Dec. Dyson was also offering a Black Friday price promise where it would refund the difference if you find it cheaper at Argos, Currys and John Lewis within seven days of purchase.

It's gone

eBay daily discounts & price matching, for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 22 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Similar to the last few years, eBay released deals every hour throughout the Black Friday weekend, from 8am to 8pm everyday until Mon 2 Dec. From what we saw, the deals in general were a bit hit and miss, and only on selected products and retailers.

It's gone

French Connection up to 50%, lasting a few days

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

Fashion retailer French Connection offered 30% off full-price items online and in stores for Black Friday, from Mon 25 Nov to Mon 2 Dec. The offer was slightly different than the 'up to 50% off' sale that we predicted it would do.

It's gone

PS4, Xbox & Switch deals at Game, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As predicted, Game offered reduced prices on consoles and games for the week of Black Friday, but saved its stronger offers until 6pm on Thu 28 Nov. While Game used to be a big player on Black Friday, this year's sale was a lot more subued and many products we looked at were actually cheaper elsewhere.

It's gone

Gap 50% off everything online & in store, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slighty stronger than in previous years, Gap offered 50% off everything online and 'up to' 50% off all full-price items in stores as part of its Black Friday promotions, until 11.59pm on Tue 3 Dec.

It's gone

H&M 20% off incl sale, for 4 days over Black Friday

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, H&M offered 20% off evertything in stores and online for Black Friday, until 11.59pm on Fri 29 Nov. There was no code needed - the discount was applied automatically either at the checkout online or at the till in store. 

It's gone

John Lewis discounts, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Always one of the strong performers on Black Friday, like last year John Lewis discounted a number of high-end products and also proactively matched the prices of its high-street competitors. We spotted a £19 Google Home Mini (norm £49) and a £149 Ring video doorball (norm £229). It offered discounts on items across electrical, home, fashion, beauty, toys.

It's gone

Kurt Geiger 20% off code, lasting about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 20 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

About a week earlier than we predicted, Kurt Geiger kicked off its 20% off most items 'Rainbow Event', from Wed 21 Nov through Black Friday weekend. There was also up to 50% off selected items, but these changed daily.

It's gone

40% off everything at Laura Ashley, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A couple of days earlier than we predicted, Laura Ashley kicked off its 40% off home and fashion Black Friday offer, online and in stores, on Mon 25 Nov until Mon 2 Dec. 

It's gone

Matalan up to 50% off, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Sat 19 Nov
  • 2015: Sat 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

It's gone

Ralph Lauren 20-30% off select items, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As we predicted, Ralph Lauren offered 20% off selected items across men's, women's and kid's fashion it its Black Friday sale, until 11.59pm on Mon 2 Dec. If you were spending £350 or more, the discount increased to 30% off. 

It's gone

Ryanair seat sale, lasting for the week of Black Friday

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, low cost airline Ryanair kicked off a 'Cyber Week' promotion, with a different deal happening every day from Mon 25 Nov until 11.59pm on Tue 3 Dec. When we looked on Fri 29 Nov, there was 25% off one million flights to various destinations, with flights starting at £9.99 each way to Eurpoe and North Africa.

It's gone

Sainsbury's Tu 25% off sale, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 29 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slightly later than we predicted (as we found a last this year as Black Friday was a week later), Sainsbury's offered 25% off its Tu clothing range from Tue 26 Nov to Mon 2 Dec. There was no code needed and the discount was applied automatically in store.

It's gone

ShopDisney up to 50% off 100s of items. Online only, for 4 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Fri 27 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

This year for Black Friday, ShopDisney offered 20% off 1,000+ items online (excluding Frozen and Star Wars). The discount was applied automatically and there was no code or voucher needed. Disney said that the offer was also on selected items in store.

It's gone

Selfridges 20% off code, 5 days around Black Friday

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As we predicted, Selfridges offered up to 20% off via an online code or in-store voucher over the Black Friday weekend until 11.59pm on Sun 1 Dec. The full 20% off was valid on selected lines including fashion, homeware and accessories, but beauty was capped at 10% off.

It's gone

25% off everything at Topman, for about 6 days

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Topman kicked off its Black Friday offer as we predicted on Wed 27 Nov. However, the offer was slightly different to what we predicted and this year it offered 25% off everything, online and in stores. The offer ended on Sun 1 Dec.

It's gone

25% off everything at Topshop, for about 6 days

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 22 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Topshop kicked off its Black Friday offer as we predicted on Wed 27 Nov. However, the offer was slightly different to what we predicted and this year it offered 25% off everything, online and in stores. The offer ended on Sun 1 Dec.

It's gone

Urban Outfitters up to 50% off, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

If you went online to Urban Outfitters or into a store, you could get up to 50% off selected items in its Black Friday sale, until Sun 1 Dec. Even though the sale was billed as up to 50% off, we spotted a few items with a higher discount than this, eg, a faux fur jacket for £25 (was £72).

Prediction

£9-£10 champagne in stores, from 3rd week of Nov

When it started
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Thu 26 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Thu 28 Nov

 

We didn't see this happen last year, but in the past supermarkets have slashed prices on champagne in the third week of November. In 2017, Lidl's Comte de Senneval champagne was reduced to £10 (norm £11.50), and then to £9 from 23 Nov, though stock would have been limited. Previously, Tesco has sold a similar £9 bottle around Black Friday, so keep an eye out for corking deals on our Food & Drinks deals page.

Prediction

Argos 'free' voucher with purchase, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 28 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 29 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 09 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 11 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Wed 27 Nov

 

For the past two years, Argos has run an offer where, if you spent £50, you get a voucher for £5 off your next purchase. Or if you spent as least £100, you get a £10 voucher instead. If you were bulk buying, you could split your purcahse into several £50 or £100 spends to receive multiple vouchers.

Prediction

50% off Illy coffee machines, for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
  • 2015: Tue 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Mon 25 Nov

 

Last year, Italian coffee company Illy brewed up a Black Friday offer of 50% off its posh coffee machines, lasting about 10 days. However, in 2017 and 2016 the offer was slightly stronger at 55% off. Previously, in 2015 it had been 50% off. We're hedging our bets and predicting it'll be 50% off this year. 

Prediction

M&S 30-50% off beauty etc, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Thu 28 Nov

 

In 2015, 2016 and 2017, M&S had some limited offers available over Black Friday weekend, including up to 50% off beauty sets, skincare and gift sets. M&S always says it isn't taking part in Black Friday and in 2018 it didn't offer anything, but we predict it might offer a few discounts this year - though they may not be labelled 'Black Friday' deals as such. 

Prediction

Plusnet cheapest standard broadband '£10ish/mth'

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 22 Nov
  • 2016: N/A
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Wed 27 Nov

 

Hot, short-lived promos come and go throughout the year - Black Friday is another period of providers offering cheap deals. In 2018 during the Black Friday week, Plusnet offered standard b’band & line for an equiv £10.24/mth over 12mths, factoring in a £75 cheque you needed to claim (Plusnet was also cheapest in 2017). We’ve seen the same week-long ‘£10.24/mth’ Plusnet deal five times in 2019 – so could see it again.

Prediction

TalkTalk standard broadband ‘£12/mth’

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: N/A
  • 2016: N/A
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Thu 28 Nov

 

Deals come and go throughout the year, and Black Friday is just another period of providers offering cheap deals. During Black Friday 2018, TalkTalk had standard b’band for an equiv £12/mth, if you claimed and spent a £60 voucher. We’ve seen other hot deals throughout the year so we think it could offer further promos throughout the Black Friday period.

December 2019

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

December 1st - 8th

< >
It's on

£10-£40 West End theatre tickets, usually sell fast

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
  • 2015: Mon 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

Confirmed!

 

Official London Theatre's confirmed that from 10am on Fri 13 Dec, theatre lovers can get £10-£40 tickets for top London shows for performances between 1 Jan 2020 and 13 Feb 2020. Mastercard holders can get the tickets slightly earlier from Fri 6 Dec. See our full £10-£40 West End tickets analysis.

It's on

Amex £5 cashback at local shops, for about 2 weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 28 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 01 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

Confirmed! Starting Sat 7 Dec

 

From Sat 7 Dec to Sun 22 Dec, American Express cardholders (some exclusions), can get £5 cashback when spending £10+ at selected local businesses including restaurants, clothes shops, hotels, hairdressers and galleries after registering their Amex with the Shop Small website. See full Amex £5 cashback analysis.

It's on

Half-price Soap & Glory 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 09 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 11 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

Confirmed! Starting on Fri 6 Dec

 

Boots has confirmed that from Fri 6 Dec, it'll be reducing the Soap & Glory 'Sweet Tin-tations' body care set to £30. The gift set which includes body butter, a face mask and mascara, is normally £60, but if the products were bought individually they would cost about £70. These can sell out quickly, so may be best to go quick if it's something you're after. See our full Soap & Glory 'Sweet Tin-tations' analysis.

It's on

£10 1L Baileys in supermarkets, for about 4 days

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 29 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 28 Oct
  • 2015: Thu 29 Oct
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

The Baileys price-cutting battle caught us out again this year and happened a week later than we were predicting. Currently, Tesco Clubcard members can get a big bottle of Baileys Original (1L) for £10 (norm £20). Non-Clubcard members can get it for £12. That's the cheapest instance at the moment, but from Thu 5 Dec to Sun 8 Dec, Baileys was £10 at Morrisons and Asda. This is the cheapest we usually see the large bottles, so it can be a good time to stock up.

It's gone

Free Santa letter (Royal Mail), deadline Fri 6 Dec

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 09 Dec
  • 2015: Sun 06 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Some companies charge up to £10 to reply to kids' letters to Father Christmas. Yet if you applied to Royal Mail, you could get a response from Santa for the price of a stamp (70p first class, 61p second class). The deadline this year was Fri 6 Dec.

It's gone

Free Santa letter in Braille, deadline Mon 2 Dec

When it started
  • 2019: Sun 01 Dec
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Santa and his elves at the RNIB send Braille, audio or large print replies for free (you needed to post it with a stamp, but that's the only cost involved). This year, the closing date for letters was Mon 2 Dec or Fri 20 Dec for email replies.

It's gone

Topman at least 20% off everything, for 48 hours

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 06 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 07 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 09 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Topman offered 20% off all full-price items from Thu 5 Dec until Tue 10 Dec, when you entered the code MATES at checkout. Delivery was £4 or click and collect was free. This is an improvement on last year, when Topman ran the same discount but only for 48 hours.

Over the last few years, this is where we've started to see some retailers kicking off their 'Boxing Day' and 'January sales'. If you've not done your Christmas shopping yet, it's worth checking from here to see which sales start early. However, if you can wait, we often see sales boost further after Christmas and sometimes again in mid-January.

December 9th - 15th

< >
It's on

Kurt Geiger 'up to 50% off' sale, could boost after Christmas

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 13 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 14 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 15 Dec
  • 2015: Mon 14 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predicted, Kurt Geiger has kicked off its 'up to 50% off' sale on Thu 12 Dec, giving you time to get last minute gifts in the sale before Christmas. In 2017 and 2018, Kurt Geiger boosted the sale post-Christmas to up to 70% off. See our full Kurt Geiger sale analysis.

It's on

M&S 30% off Xmas decorations etc, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 18 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 19 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 14 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 12 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Kicking off a week earlier than we predcited, M&S has 30% off selected Christmas decorations and gifts, including Christmas trees, decorations, candles and selected gifts. Delivery's £3.50 or you can click and collect in store for free. M&S has told us that there's no confirmed end date for this offer and it'll be on while stocks last. See our full M&S 30% off Christmas decorations analysis

It's on

Miss Selfridge 'up to 50% off ' sale, likely to boost to 70%

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 13 Dec
  • 2017: Wed 13 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 14 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 16 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just one day earlier than we predicted, Miss Selfridge has kicked off its 'up to 50% off sale' on Wed 11 Dec. When we checked on Wed 11 Dec, there were over 1,900 items included in the sale, across all products. This is its 'Boxing Day' sale and based on last year, we'd expect it to boost to up to 70% off everything on Christmas Day online and Boxing Day in stores. See our full Miss Selfridge sale anaylsis.

It's on

Half-price No7 beauty 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 14 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 15 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 16 Dec
  • 2015: Mon 14 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predcited and as we've seen for the last few years, Boots has reduced its No7 'Best Face Forward' gift set to £39 (norm £80) on Wed 11 Dec. We've calculated that if you were to buy the items separetely, it would cost £156ish. It's available until 11.59pm on Tue 24 Dec, or while stocks last. The set includes day cream, night cream, mascara, primer and more. See our full No7 collection analysis

Prediction

The Body Shop 40% off most items, for about a week

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 06 Dec
  • 2017: Mon 11 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 12 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 10 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 9 Dec

 

The Body Shop is renowned for running promotions throughout the year, so it's rare you'll ever need to pay full-price. In previous years, it offered a code for 40% off most items, plus a free gift with your purchase, but we didn't see the free gift offered in 2018.

Prediction

John Lewis 30% off Christmas decorations, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 11 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 12 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 13 Dec
  • 2015: Tue 15 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 10 Dec

 

In 2018, John Lewis offered 30% off Christmas decorations. However, in previous years, it offered up to 50% off instead. We're predicting it'll do the same as last year and offer 30% off decorations. It could be a good time to stock up for next Christmas (or this year, if you leave things to last minute). 

December 16th - 22nd

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Prediction

19p cheap Christmas veg, supermarket price war

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Wed 20 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 20 Dec
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 20 Dec

 

For the last four years, supermarkets have started battling in a price-war over Christmas vegetables on 20 Dec. Asda kicked off the battle by dropping the price of veg like Brussel sprouts (500g), parsnips (600g), and carrots (1kg) to 20p, but shortly after both Aldi and Lidl offered those same vegetables for 19p each. We're predicting they'll do the same this year.

Prediction

Asos 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 21 Dec
  • 2015: Mon 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 20 Dec

 

For the last two years, Asos has started it's up to 50% off 'January sale' on the Friday before Christmas. In 2018, we saw the sale boost to up to 70% off a week later. We'd expect it to do the same this year.

Prediction

Body Shop 'up to 50% off' sale, lasting a few weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
  • 2015: Tue 22 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 24 Dec

 

In 2018, Body Shop kicked off it's 'up to 50% off' sale slightly later than we expected, on Christmas Eve. In previous years, it had started on the 21 or 22 Dec. The sale is normally both online and in stores and we don't usually see it boost any further.

Prediction

British Airways 'January' sale, likely to run until 31 Jan

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 20 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 19 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 20 Dec

 

In 2018, British Airways launched its sale about a week before Christmas and we spotted deals such as return Chicago flights for £295, Bermuda return for £391 and Bangkok return for £438. The flights and holidays available in the sale were for travel between January and December 2019, and the sale ran until 31 Jan 2019. We're predicting it'll do something similar this year. 

Prediction

Easyjet up to 20% off flights sale, lasting until Jan

When it started
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 19 Dec

 

For the last few years, we've seen Easyjet launch its 'up to 20% off' seat sale around a week before Christmas. In 2018 we saw Gatwick to Valencia return flights for £44, and Marrakesh return for £57. The sale was valid on flights between 30 Jan and 3 Jul 2019. In previous years, the sale has lasted until around mid-January. 

Prediction

H&M 'up to 60% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 23 Dec
  • 2015: Wed 23 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Fri 20 Dec

 

For the last three years, H&M has started it's up to 60% off sale the Friday before Christmas. We've then seen it boost to up to 70% off in January. We'd expect it to do the same this year.

Prediction

Topman 'up to 60% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 18 Dec

 

In 2018, Topman launched it's sale slightly earlier than we predicted and kicked it off online and in stores on Wed 19 Dec. It also offered a higher discount than usual and started at up to 60% off (rather than up to 50% off). On Boxing Day, we saw the sale boost to up to 70% off.

Prediction

Topshop 'up to 60% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 18 Dec

 

In 2018, Topshop kicked off it's 'up to 60% off' sale early and started it a week before Christmas, online and in stores. It also started at a stronger discount than we expected, at 'up to 60% off'. Last year, we saw the sale boost to 'up to 70% off' on Boxing Day.

Prediction

Virgin Atlantic winter sale, likely until 31 Jan

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 14 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 18 Dec

 

For the last couple of years, we've seen Virgin Atlantic launch its 'Winter sale' a week or so before Christmas. In 2018, we saw Manchester to New York return flights for £278, Heathrow to Los Angeles for £288 return and Heathrow to Dubai return for £361. The sale was valid on flights departing between January and November 2019, and ran until 31 Jan 2019. We're predicting it'll do the same this year.

This is where we start to see January sales boosting – usually up to 70% off, though some years we’ve seen boosts of up to 90% off. Bear in mind, a lot of it is stores clearing stock, and this is where there’s a trade off… If you do wait for a bigger discount, supply becomes more limited and there is a risk an item you’re looking for might sell out.

December 23rd - 31st

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Prediction

Amazon 'up to 50%ish off' sale, Boxing Day only

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 26 Dec

 

For the last three years on Boxing Day, Amazon has offered 24-hour 'Deals of the Day' and one off deals everything five minutes. While it doesn't give the sale a discount amount, from what we usually see 'up to 50% off' is a fair summary. In the past, we've seen decent deals from big brands including Philips, Oral B, Fitbit and Bosch.

Prediction

Asos 'up to 50% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Fri 28 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 29 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 30 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 31 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Fri 27 Dec

 

For the last few years, Asos has boosted its 'up to 50% off' sale to up to 70% off on the Friday after Christmas. We'd expect it to do the same this year and predict it'll boost on Fri 27 Dec. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting.

Prediction

Argos up to 50% off sale, lasts a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Tue 25 Dec
  • 2017: Mon 25 Dec
  • 2016: Sun 25 Dec
  • 2015: Fri 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Wed 25 Dec

 

For the last few years, Argos has started it's sale online on Christmas Day and in stores on Boxing Day. In 2018 it was billed as 'up to 50% off', however, we did spot a few items reduced by more than 50% off. Strong deals in the past have included a Slumberdown double duvet and a George Foreman grill.

Prediction

Boots 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost in stores in Jan/Feb

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 24 Dec

 

In previous years, Boots has kicked up off its 'up to 50% off' sale online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. In Jan 2019, Boots didn't boost the sale to 'up to 70% off' until Fri 1 Feb which was a couple of weeks later than we were expecting. The 'up to 70% off' boost is in stores only and usually includes Christmas gifts and fragrances.

Prediction

Debenhams 'Blue Cross' up to 50% off sale, likely to boost

When it started
  • 2018: Sun 23 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Mon 23 Dec

 

In 2018, Debenham started it's up to 50% off 'Blue Cross' sale a little earlier than we were expecting, online on Sun 23 Dec and in stores on Boxing Day. We usually see this boost to up to 70% off in the first week of January.

Prediction

John Lewis 'up to 50% off' sale, not likely to boost further

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 24 Dec

 

For the last few years, John Lewis has started it's 'January sale' on Xmas Eve, online and in stores. It doesn't actually bill its clearance as 'up to 50% off', but it usually matches competitors' reductions and last year we spotted up to 50% off selected brands. We don't usually see the discount increase any further, so if you want something it might be worth buying as soon as the sale starts.

Prediction

Matalan 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 24 Dec

 

For the last couple of years, Matalan has kicked off its 'up to 50% off' Boxing Day sale on Christmas Eve online and on Boxing Day in stores. It's likely to boost to up to 70% off in January.

Prediction

M&S 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 24 Dec

 

One of the big ones that MoneySavers wait for, M&S usually starts its 'up to 50% off' sale online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. For the last couple of years, we've seen the sale boost to 'up to 60% off' at the beginning of Jan, and then boost further a couple of weeks later to 'up to 70% off'. Last year, we saw it discounts of up to 90% off in stores until Sun 10 Feb.

Prediction

Mulberry 'up to 50% off' sale, not likely to boost any further

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 26 Dec

 

Let's be honest, £900 handbags certaintly aren't MoneySaving. However... if you're going to buy one anyway and can afford it, you might as well get it while there's a decent discount to be had. Mulberry usually starts its up to 50% off 'January sale' on Boxing Day, both online and in stores.

Prediction

Next 'at least 50% off' sale, for a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
  • 2015: Thu 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 24 Dec

 

As it does every year, we'd expect the Next 'Boxing Day' sale to start online on Christmas Eve and in stores on Boxing Day. Always a popular one with MoneySavers as the discount is at least 50% off, rather then up to 50% off. We've not seen the discount increase any further in previous years, so we wouldn't expect it to this year. So if there's something you're after, it might be worth buying before stock sells out.

Prediction

Ryanair 500,000 seats from £9.99, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 31 Dec
  • 2017: Sat 30 Dec
  • 2016: N/A
  • 2015: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Tue 31 Dec

 

For the last two years, we've seen Ryanair offer 500,000 seats from £9.99 for flights, for a few days over New Years. In 2018, the seats on offer were for travel between January and March 2019. Some deals we spotted included Glasgow to Faro for £12 return and Stansted to Prague for £30 return. We're predicting that it'll launch a similar sale on New Years Eve this year.

Prediction

Topman 'up to 60% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 05 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
  • 2015: Wed 07 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Tue 24 Dec

 

In 2018, as Topman started its 'up to 60% off' sale earlier than expected, it also boosted to up to 70% off earlier than expected. Last year it boosted on Christmas Eve, so we'd expect it to do the same this year and boost on Tue 24 Dec. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. 

Prediction

Topshop 'up to 60% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 05 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
  • 2015: Thu 15 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Tue 24 Dec

 

In 2018, as Topshop started its 'up to 60% off' sale earlier than expected, it also boosted to up to 70% off earlier than expected. Last year it boosted on Christmas Eve, so we'd expect it to do the same this year and boost on Tue 24 Dec. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting.

Prediction

Travelodge 30% off selected stays, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
  • 2015: Sat 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 26 Dec

 

In previous years, Travelodge has offered a deal at the end of December for selected dates the following year. In 2018, it offered 30% off selected stays between Mon 1 Jan and Sun 31 Mar - slightly stronger than 2016's 26% off.

January 2020

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

January 1st - 5th

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Prediction

Carluccio's 2for1 for £1 voucher, for a few weeks

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 03 Jan
  • 2018: Thu 04 Jan
  • 2017: Wed 04 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 2 Jan

 

Italian restaurant chain Carluccio's has offered a rare 2for1 voucher in the first week of January for the last seven years, and it served up a repeat in 2019. If you ordered two main courses, you got the cheapest for £1 until Thu 31 Jan. It rarely offers discounts, so this deal is worth looking out for.

Prediction

Debenhams 'Blue Cross' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2018: Wed 03 Jan
  • 2017: Wed 04 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
  • 2015: Wed 07 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Thu 2 Jan

 

For the last few years, Debenhams has boosted its up to 50% off 'Blue Cross' sale to up to 70% off in the first week of January. In 2018, it boosted on Thu 3 Jan, so this year we're predicting that it'll boost on Thu 2 Jan. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. 

Prediction

Eurostar £58 return (Jan-Mar trips)

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Tue 02 Jan
  • 2017: Wed 04 Jan
  • 2016: Fri 30 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Thu 2 Jan

 

We didn't see this happen when we were expecting it to last year, but in previous years we've seen a Eurostar sale in the first week of January. In 2018, Eurostar offered £58 return train tickets to Paris, Lille, Calaid or Brussels from London St Pancras International, Ebbsfleet International or Ashford International.

Prediction

H&M 'up to 60% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 02 Jan
  • 2018: Wed 03 Jan
  • 2017: Tue 03 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Thu 2 Jan

 

For last few two years, H&M has boosted its 'up to 60% off' sale to up to 70% off in the first week of January. In 2019, it boosted on Wed 2 Jan, so this year we're predicting that it'll boost on Thu 2 Jan. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting. 

Prediction

The Sun '£9.50' holidays via tokens, collect in newspaper

When it started
  • 2019: Sat 05 Jan
  • 2018: Sat 06 Jan
  • 2017: Sat 07 Jan
  • 2016: Sat 09 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted start date: Sat 4 Jan

 

Historically, we've seen The Sun offer its '£9.50' holidays at the beginning of January – and 2018 was no exception. In reality, they're never actually £9.50, but if you dodged the costly extras you could get a trip for four people for £44.

January 6th - 12th

Prediction

M&S 'up to 50% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 10 Jan
  • 2018: Mon 15 Jan
  • 2017: Tue 10 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 19 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? Watch this space!

Predicted boost date: Thu 9 Jan

 

In the last few years, M&S has boosted it's 'up to 50% off sale' to up to 70% off in the second week of January. We then see it boost further into clearance in mid-January to 'up to 90% off'. Last year, the sale boosted on Thu 10 Jan, so this year we're predicting it'll boost on Thu 9 Jan. If you've got your eye on something and don't want to risk it going out of stock, you may want to buy at the beginning of the sale, but if you can hold on it could be worth waiting.