Christmas Deals Predictor
2020

Our calendar predicting the hottest deals to come, to help you plan when's best to purchase & spread the cost of Christmas

Take a slightly bigger pinch of salt with it this year. This is a predictor. And if we've learned anything, we know predicting in 2020 is tough. Rules about store openings in different regions plus stock shortages could reduce promotions, while overstocking for in some cases could increase them.

Last year we got 63% of deals spot on and 89% either spot on or only marginally out. We hope for the same this year but give us some wriggle room in case that doesn’t happen. And as we say every year, remember, only ever buy what you need and can afford. If you can’t afford it, DON’T buy it. See the deals we predict will happen this week

Frequently Asked Questions

  • To save you money, of course! Pre-Christmas, when retailers launch discount codes, they have one main aim – they want to avoid giving discounts to people who would buy in their stores anyway and instead target price-conscious consumers who are looking around on impulse for somewhere to shop. 

    That’s why they launch codes, sales or discounts only for a very short amount of time in the run-up to Christmas, as opposed to the lengthy January sales. However, with many stores across the UK being closed this year, it's a little trickier to predict these offers.

    What we want to do is help people who know where they want to shop to be ready to pounce at the perfect moment to take advantage of those offers. If you like, perverting the marketing plans of Britain’s big retailers.

    To get the best out of our Christmas Deals Predictor it’s best to know what you want to buy and where it’s sold. Then use the calendar to plan your spending and hope you’ll be able to get what you want at a much reduced price.

  • Rather than only making our predictions on what we've seen retailers do in previous years, we've also taken a much closer look into what they've already done this year. If we've seen sales and offers happen as we'd have expected throughout the year so far, we're predicting the retailers’ usual Christmas offers will be happening, too. Fortunately, that’s meant our early predictions have been mostly accurate.

    We've also adjusted our 'likelihood' ratings for this year. We've only given a rating of five if the retailer has told us it's planning something – anything rated four or below is a genuine prediction. 

November 2020

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

November 2nd - 8th

< >
It's gone

Thorntons 3for2 on Christmas gifts, lasting until Xmas Eve

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 07 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 05 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 06 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
IT'S GONE. Since 2017, Thorntons has been cutting back on its promotional activity and it’s done the same this year. Instead of its usual 15% off code (20% in previous years), it’s offering 3for2 on Christmas gifts, plus 10% off online orders via VoucherCodes.
It's gone

Disney FLASH 24% off toys code, two days only

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 12 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 13 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 14 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 15 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

ShopDisney surprised us this year and started its Toy Tuesday promotion a week early on Tue 3 Nov. You were able to get 24% off toys and costumes online at ShopDisney from Tue 3 Nov to Wed 4 Nov. The code was valid on around 400 items across toys, costumes and stationary. 

November 9th - 15th

< >
It's gone

AO.com discounts on 100s of items, lasting about 3 weeks

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 13 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 12 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 13 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As in previous years, AO.com discounted hundreds of items for Black Friday, beginning this year on Wed 11 Nov and ending on Mon 30 Nov. It had over 500 deals online (last year it had over 900), with most joint-cheapest on the market, often price-matched by Currys or John Lewis.

It's gone

La Redoute up to 40% off everything for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 14 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 17 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Exactly as we predicted, La Redoute started it's Black Friday offer on Thu 12 Nov, and ended on Tue 1 Dec. The offer wasn't quite as strong as we were predicting, as it was up to 40% off rather than a flat 40% off. The discount included many popular brands, eg, Dr Martens, Levi's and Ugg. 

It's gone

Plusnet fibre broadband '£19ish/mth'

When it started
  • 2019: N/A
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 22 Nov
  • 2016: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

Predicted start date: Wed 27 Nov

 

Hot, short-lived promos come and go throughout the year - Black Friday is another period of providers offering cheap deals. In 2018 during the Black Friday week, Plusnet offered standard b’band & line for an equiv £10.24/mth over 12mths, factoring in a £75 cheque you needed to claim (Plusnet was also cheapest in 2017). We’ve seen the same week-long ‘£10.24/mth’ Plusnet deal five times in 2019 – so could see it again.

It's gone

Habitat 25% off code valid on almost everything, for four days

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 13 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 15 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Like it had done for the past four years, Habitat offered 25% off just about everything from Wed 11 Nov to Sun 15 Nov, when you entered the code HAB25 at the checkout. The offer excluded gift vouchers, home delivery and assembly, but the code worked on everything else. 

It's gone

Nectar double-up at Sainsbury's, via app for 8 days

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 11 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 12 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 15 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 16 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Sainsbury's started the double-up promo at the end of October. You could swap points for vouchers online between Wed 28 Oct and Tue 3 Nov, or you could do it via the Nectar app between Wed 11 and Tue 17 Nov. The window to spend vouchers opened from Wed 11 Nov until Tue 17 Nov, however, vouchers could only be spent in store and not online.

November 16th - 22nd

< >
It's gone

Ikea buy £29 real Xmas tree, get £20 voucher, till Xmas Eve

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 21 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

£10 1L Baileys in supermarkets, for about 4 days

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 05 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 29 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 28 Oct
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

This one caught us out again this year and happened earlier than we were predicting. From Thu 19 Nov until Sun 22 Nov, big bottles of Baileys Original (1L) will be reduced to £10 (norm £20) at Asda. The following week, Tesco offered the same price for Clubcard members (non-Clubcard members could get the bottle for £12. This is the cheapest we usually see the large bottles, so it can be a good time to stock up.

It's gone

Amazon 'lightning' & daily deals, lasting for 10 days

When it started
  • 2019: Fri 22 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 17 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 14 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

Confirmed! Starting Fri 22 Nov

For the last couple of years, Amazon has started to pump out Black Friday deals, with daily deals and new offers appearing at regular intervals, from a week before Black Friday until Cyber Monday. We usually find that the best deals are on Black Friday itself, but last year we saw some of it's Alexa devices at a low price all week. 

See our full Amazon eight days of deals analysis.

It's gone

John Lewis discounts, for about a week

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Always one of the strong performers on Black Friday, like last year John Lewis discounted a number of high-end products and also proactively matched the prices of its high-street competitors. We spotted a £19 Google Home Mini (norm £49) and a £149 Ring video doorball (norm £229). It offered discounts on items across electrical, home, fashion, beauty, toys.

It's gone

Kurt Geiger 25% off shoes & boots, lasting about a week

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 20 Nov
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

About a week earlier than we predicted, Kurt Geiger kicked off its 20% off most items 'Rainbow Event', from Wed 21 Nov through Black Friday weekend. There was also up to 50% off selected items, but these changed daily.

It's gone

Selfridges 20% off code, over 2 weeks around Black Friday

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Wed 21 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As we predicted, Selfridges offered up to 20% off via an online code or in-store voucher over the Black Friday weekend until 11.59pm on Sun 1 Dec. The full 20% off was valid on selected lines including fashion, homeware and accessories, but beauty was capped at 10% off.

It's gone

Tesco 25% off 6 bottles of wine, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 19 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, you could get 25% off when you bought six or more bottles of wine, sparkling wine (including prosecco) or champange. The deal was available online and in larger stores.

Prediction

Boots half-price Sanctuary Spa 'Star Gift' set

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Wed 20 Nov

 

Boots is shaking things up a little this year, so it's not as easy for us to predict as in the past. We've noticed it's been launching its offers on Wednesdays rather than Fridays as it used to, so we're predicting the ever-popular Sanctuary Spa gift set will be half-price on Wed 20 Nov. It's usually a set that would normally cost £45ish reduced to about £23. 

Black Friday is on Fri 27 Nov this year. However, we see many retailers start sales much earlier than this. See our full Black Friday 2020 analysis.

November 23rd - 30th

< >
It's gone

Ted Baker half-price 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 30 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 02 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A week earlier than we prerdicted, Boots discounted its Ted Baker 'Suite Harmony' skincare set to £25 (norm £50), from Wed 20 Nov to Thu 5 Dec. The gift set included body lotion, body wash, face masks and more, which we reckon would have cost around £63ish if bought individually.

It's gone

Shell Energy cheapest fibre broadband '£15ish/mth'

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 04 Nov
  • 2018: N/A
  • 2017: N/A
  • 2016: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A little later than we predicted, Shell Energy launched a deal where newbies would pay £23.99/mth, but got two months free (via a £47.98 bill credit applied within 3mths). There was also be a further £60 bill credit within three months of your service going live. This made it a total outlay of £179.09 over the 12-month contract, equivalent to £15/mth. The deal was on until Wed 9 Dec. 

It's gone

Apple 'free' gift card with big purchase, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, Apple offered 'free' gift cards of up to £120 with selected large purchases during its Black Friday "shopping event", from Fri 27 Nov to Mon 30 Nov. 

It's gone

Asos up to 70% off everything, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Asos kicked off it's Black Friday offer on Thu 26 Nov, until 8am on Tue 1 Dec. It offered up to 70% off everything and from what we saw, most items were reduced by around 10%-20%.

It's gone

Benefit 20% off code, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, you could get 20% off at make-up and skincare brand Benefit when you entered the code ADDTOBAG at checkout, from Fri 27 Nov to 11.59pm on Mon 30 Nov. If you spent £60 or more, you'd get 25% off and if you spent £100 or more, you'd get 30% off. It also offered 40% off three palettes, including full-size "Cheekleader" palettes and full size "Cheek star" palettes. 

It's gone

Dyson daily deals for Black Friday, likely till Cyber Mon

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

You could get up to £150 off selected items online at Dyson for Black Friday. Dyson was also offering a Black Friday price promise where it would refund the difference if you found it cheaper at Argos, Currys and John Lewis within seven days of purchase. 

It's gone

eBay daily discounts & price matching, for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 27 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 16 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 22 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slightly different to previous years, eBay had an 'up to 50% off' sale for its Black Friday event this year, plus new daily deals added each day until Mon 30 Nov. When we checked on Thu 26 Nov, there were over 900 items in the sale. We saw the strongest offers on Black Friday itself, including a £239.99 Nintedo Switch (was £313.99) and a £119 Google Nest video doorbell (was £149). 

It's gone

French Connection 30% off full-price, lasting a few days

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

You could get 30% off full-price items at French Connection, until Mon 30 Nov. There was no code or voucher needed, the discount was applied automatically.  Excluded homeware. 

It's gone

PS4, Xbox & Switch deals at Game, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 23 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Console and games retailer Game has previously been a big player on Black Friday, however, similar to last year, most of the products we saw were the same price or cheaper elsewhere – hammering home that it's important to compare prices before buying. Some bundles came with additional Game 'points', eg, Nintendo Switch bundle got you £20 in points, Over £50 spend goy you £5 in points, but is only be worthwhile if you're a frequent shopper at Game. 

It's gone

Gap 50% off everything online & in store, for about a week

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 26 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Tue 21 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Slighty stronger than in previous years, Gap offered 50% off everything online and 'up to' 50% off all full-price items in stores as part of its Black Friday promotions, until 11.59pm on Tue 3 Dec.

It's gone

H&M 20% off incl sale, for a couple of days

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just as we predicted, H&M offered 20% off everything for Black Friday, until 11.59pm on Fri 27 Nov. There was no code needed - the discount was applied automatically either at the checkout online or at the till in store. 

It's gone

M&S 30-50% off beauty etc, for Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Despite telling us it wasn't taking part in Black Friday again this year, M&S had a range of offers live during the week across beauty, home and fashion. We saw up to 50% off on selected beauty products, 40% off selected home products and up to 30% off selected menswear and womenswear.

It's gone

Matalan 'special buys', for about a week

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Sat 19 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

High street retailer launched a range of 'special buy' offers for Black Friday, with discounts of up to 50% off across different categories. There was also a code for £10 off a £50 spend, until 11.59pm on Wed 2 Dec. 

It's gone

ShopDisney 20% off 1,000+ items. Online only, for 3 days

When it started
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

ShopDisney's offered 20% off 1,000+ items online, from Fri 27 Nov to Sun 29 Nov. The discount was applied automatically and there was no code or voucher needed. It also offered a range of different discounts throughout this week leading up to Black Friday.

It's gone

Ralph Lauren 20-30% off select items, over Black Friday weekend

When it started
  • 2019: Fri 29 Nov
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Ralph Lauren offered 25% off selected items from Fri 27 Nov to Mon 30 Nov. 

It's gone

Ryanair seat sale, lasting for the week of Black Friday

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 25 Nov
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

This year, Ryanair had a 'Black Fridays' promotion which ran throughout November, where it offered different deals every Friday in November. 

It's gone

Sainsbury's Tu 25% off sale, for about a week

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 26 Nov
  • 2018: Tue 20 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Tue 29 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Just a day later than we predicted, Sainsbury's started it's Tu clothing offer on Wed 25 Nov. However, the offer was slightly different than the 25% off everything we predicted - instead it had 25% off selected kidswear and brands, and up to 50% off other categories.

It's gone

Urban Outfitters up to 50% off, for about 5 days

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 28 Nov
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

If you went online to Urban Outfitters or into a store, you could get up to 50% off selected items in its Black Friday sale, until Mon 30 Nov. For Cyber Monday (30 Nov), you could get an extra 20% off items in the sale via a code.

Prediction

£9-£10 champagne in stores, from 3rd week of Nov

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Didn't Happen
  • 2017: Thu 23 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 24 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Thu 26 Nov

 

We didn't see this happen last year or in 2018, but in the past supermarkets have slashed prices on champagne in the third week of November. In 2017, Lidl's Comte de Senneval champagne was reduced to £10 (norm £11.50), and then to £9 from 23 Nov, though stock would have been limited. Previously, Tesco has sold a similar £9 bottle around Black Friday, so keep an eye out for corking deals on our Food & Drinks deals page.

Prediction

Argos 'free' voucher with purchase, for about a week

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Wed 28 Nov
  • 2017: Wed 29 Nov
  • 2016: Wed 09 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Wed 27 Nov

 

For the past two years, Argos has run an offer where, if you spent £50, you get a voucher for £5 off your next purchase. Or if you spent as least £100, you get a £10 voucher instead. If you were bulk buying, you could split your purcahse into several £50 or £100 spends to receive multiple vouchers.

Prediction

50% off Illy coffee machines, for about 10 days

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Mon 19 Nov
  • 2017: Mon 20 Nov
  • 2016: Mon 21 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Mon 25 Nov

 

Last year, Italian coffee company Illy brewed up a Black Friday offer of 50% off its posh coffee machines, lasting about 10 days. However, in 2017 and 2016 the offer was slightly stronger at 55% off. Previously, in 2015 it had been 50% off. We're hedging our bets and predicting it'll be 50% off this year. 

Prediction

TalkTalk fibre broadband ‘£21/mth’

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Thu 22 Nov
  • 2017: N/A
  • 2016: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Thu 28 Nov

 

Deals come and go throughout the year, and Black Friday is just another period of providers offering cheap deals. During Black Friday 2018, TalkTalk had standard b’band for an equiv £12/mth, if you claimed and spent a £60 voucher. We’ve seen other hot deals throughout the year so we think it could offer further promos throughout the Black Friday period.

December 2020

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

December 1st - 6th

< >
It's gone

Half-price Soap & Glory 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 04 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 09 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
IT'S GONE. Christmas wouldn’t be Christmas without Boots offering a discount on one of its hugely popular Soap & Glory gift sets. You could get a 'Bubble Act' body care set for £30 (norm £60) from Fri 8 Dec. We worked out the products would cost £80 if bought individually.
It's gone

Ikea 'up to 50% off' winter sale, online and in stores

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!
It's gone

Free Santa letter in Braille, deadline Tue 1 Dec

When it started
  • 2019: Sun 01 Dec
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 01 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Santa and his elves at the RNIB send Braille, audio or large print replies for free (you needed to post it with a stamp, but that's the only cost involved). This year, the closing date for letters was Tue 1 Dec or Mon 21 Dec for email replies.

Prediction

£10-£40 West End theatre tickets, usually sell fast

When it started
  • 2019: Fri 06 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 23 Nov
  • 2017: Fri 24 Nov
  • 2016: Fri 25 Nov
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

It didn't happen

 

Unfortunately this popular deal didn't take place this year because of the coronavirus pandemic. Normally in December, Official London Theatre offers £10-£40 tickets for top London shows for performances in the New Year. We hope to see this deal return in 2021.

Over the last few years, this is where we've started to see some retailers kicking off their 'Boxing Day' and 'January sales'. If you've not done your Christmas shopping yet, it's worth checking from here to see which sales start early. However, if you can wait, we often see sales boost further after Christmas and sometimes again in mid-January.

December 7th - 13th

< >
It's gone

Half-price No7 beauty 'Star Gift' set at Boots

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 11 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 14 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 15 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 16 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

As we've seen in the past few years, Boots offered a half-price No7 gift set. The 'Star of the Show' set was available for £39 until Christmas Eve. The gift set, which included mascara, cleanser, lipstick and more was normally £80, but if bought individually the products would have cost £143ish, so getting it all for £39 was a substantial saving.

It's gone

Kurt Geiger 50% off sale items online & in stores

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 12 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 13 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 14 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 15 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Kurt Geiger kicked off its '50% off sale items' on Fri 4 Dec, giving you time to get last minute gifts in the sale before Christmas.

It's gone

Amex £5 cashback at local shops, for about 2 weeks

When it started
  • 2019: Sat 07 Dec
  • 2018: Sat 01 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 28 Nov
  • 2016: Thu 01 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

From Sat 5 Dec to Sun 20 Dec, American Express cardholders (some exclusions), could get £5 cashback when spending £10+ at selected local businesses including restaurants, clothes shops and hairdressers after registering their Amex with the Shop Small website.

It's gone

Free Santa letter (Royal Mail), deadline Fri 11 Dec

When it started
  • 2019: Fri 06 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 07 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 08 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 09 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Some companies charge up to £10 to reply to kids' letters to Father Christmas. Yet if you applied to Royal Mail, you could get a response from Santa for the price of a stamp (70p first class, 61p second class). The deadline this year was Fri 6 Dec.

Prediction

The Body Shop 40% off most items, for about a week

When it started
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Thu 06 Dec
  • 2017: Mon 11 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 12 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

It didn't happen

 

Similar to last year, we didn't see The Body Shop run it's 40% off offer this year. Though there are a few others offers, including 15% off 'seasonal flavours' and 'free' gift when you spend £45. The Body Shop is renowned for running promotions throughout the year, so it’s rare you’ll ever need to pay full-price.

December 14th - 20th

< >
It's gone

15p cheap Christmas veg, supermarket price war

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 16 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Wed 20 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 20 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A few days earlier than we were predicting, Aldi started the supermarket price-war over Christmas vegetables and reduced the price of selected veg to 19p, from Mon 16 Dec. However, a couple of days later Lidl quickly followed with 15p veg, with Aldi soon dropping it's prices to match - before Tesco entered the ring with 19p-29p veg. Aldi and Lidl offered Brussels sprouts (500g), carrots (1kg), parnsips (500g) and more for just 15p.

It's on

British Airways 'January' sale, until 2 Feb

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 20 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just a day earlier than predicted, British Airways launched it's sale on Thu 17 Dec, until Tue 2 Feb. We spotted return flights from Heathrow to New York for £269 and London to Dubai for £299 return. The flights and holidays available in the sale are for travel between January and November 2021. If you're booking a flight, you'll need to weigh up if you can afford to lose the cost of your flight AND hotel. While one may be cancelled – and so you'd be entitled to a refund – the other may not be. Be sure that bagging a bargain is worth the gamble.

It's on

H&M 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 19 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 23 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as we predicted, H&M has kicked off its winter sale with up to 50% off online and in stores, on Thu 17 Dec. Last year, it's sale started slightly stronger at 'up to 60% off'. Even though the sale is billed at 'up to 50% off', we've spotted a few items which have a higher discount than this. We'd expect the sale to boost to up to 70% off around New Years Eve. See our full H&M sale analysis.

It's gone

John Lewis 30% off Christmas decorations, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 17 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 11 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 12 Dec
  • 2016: Tue 13 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

A week later than we were predicting, John Lewis offered up to 30% off Christmas decorations, from Tue 17 Dec. The discounts were on a range of Christmas items, including trees, decorations, baubles, lights, candles and crackers. It could've been a good time to stock up for next Christmas (or this year if you hadn't decorated yet).

It's on

Virgin Atlantic winter sale, until 2 Feb

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 17 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 19 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 14 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

As predicted, Virgin Atlantic has launched its 'Winter sale' on Tue 15 Dec. It's on till Tue 2 Feb but cheap flights will likely sell out sooner. We've spotted Heathrow to New York return flights from £274 & Heathrow to Tel Aviv from £275 return. The sale's valid on flights departing from 22 Dec 2020 to 31 Dec 2021. If you're booking a flight, you'll need to weigh up if you can afford to lose the cost of your flight AND hotel. While one may be cancelled – and so you'd be entitled to a refund – the other may not be. Be sure that bagging a bargain is worth the gamble.

Prediction

M&S 30% off Xmas decorations etc, while stocks last

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 17 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 18 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 19 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 14 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

It's gone!

 

M&S kicked off its 30% off selected Christmas decorations and gifts, including Christmas trees, decorations, candles and selected gifts, a week earlier than we predcited on Tue 10 Dec. 

This is where we expect to see more of the big sales start, and some existing sales boost to larger discounts – usually up to 70% off, though some years we’ve seen boosts of up to 90% off. Bear in mind, as stores try to clear stock there’s a trade off… wait for a bigger discount and supply becomes limited. So there's a risk items you want could sell out.

December 21st - 25th

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It's on

Asos 'up to 70% off' sale, likely to boost to up to 80% off

When it started
  • 2019: Fri 20 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 21 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 22 Dec
  • 2016: Wed 21 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? It's on!

It's on!

 

Just as predicted, Asos started its sale on Mon 21 Dec, however it's started slightly stronger at 'up to 70% off', rather than last year's 'up to 60% off'. In 2019, we saw it boost to up to 70% off on Fri 27 Dec. In past sales we haven't seen it boost further than 70%, but this year as it's started at a higher discount, we could see it boost to 'up to 80% off. See our full Asos sale analysis

It's gone

Easyjet 350,000 seats for £19.99, lasting until 3 Jan

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 23 Dec
  • 2018: Thu 20 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? Yes, but it’s gone!

It's gone!

 

Easyjet launched its £19.99 seat sale a couple of days later than we predicted, on Wed 23 Dec. There were 350,000 seats available for selected flights between 1 Apr and 31 Oct 2021. You could book until Sun 3 Jan or until all seats had gone. There was also £100pp off on all 2021 summer beach holidays, running from Wed 23 Dec to Sun 3 Jan 2021. The holidays are available between Apr and Oct 2021.

Prediction

Argos up to 50% off sale, lasts a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 25 Dec
  • 2018: Tue 25 Dec
  • 2017: Mon 25 Dec
  • 2016: Sun 25 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

Body Shop 'up to 50% off' sale, lasting a few weeks

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Thu 21 Dec
  • 2016: Thu 22 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

Boots 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost in stores in Jan/Feb

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

John Lewis 'up to 50% off' sale, not likely to boost further

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

Matalan 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

M&S 'up to 50% off' sale, likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

Next 'at least 50% off' sale, for a couple of weeks

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 24 Dec
  • 2017: Sun 24 Dec
  • 2016: Sat 24 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

Travelodge 30% off selected stays, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2019: Tue 24 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

December 26th - 31st

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Prediction

Amazon 'up to 50%ish off' sale, from Boxing Day

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 26 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

It's gone!

 

From Boxing Day until Tue 31 Dec, one-off deals could be found on Amazon across all categories. Some of its strongest recudtions are in the form of 'Deals of the Day', with items reduced up to 75% for just 24 hours.

Prediction

Asos 'up to 60% off' sale likely to boost to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Sat 28 Dec
  • 2018: Fri 28 Dec
  • 2017: Fri 29 Dec
  • 2016: Fri 30 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

H&M 'up to 60% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2019: Wed 02 Jan
  • 2018: Wed 03 Jan
  • 2017: Tue 03 Jan
  • 2016: Tue 05 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

Mulberry 'up to 50% off' sale, not likely to boost any further

When it started
  • 2019: Thu 26 Dec
  • 2018: Wed 26 Dec
  • 2017: Tue 26 Dec
  • 2016: Mon 26 Dec
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

Ryanair 500,000 seats from £9.99, lasting for a few days

When it started
  • 2019: Mon 30 Dec
  • 2018: Mon 31 Dec
  • 2017: Sat 30 Dec
  • 2016: N/A
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

January 2021

The deals we predict will happen this month and why

January 1st - 3rd

Prediction

Carluccio's 2for1 for £1 voucher, for a few weeks

When it started
  • 2020: Thu 02 Jan
  • 2019: Thu 03 Jan
  • 2018: Thu 04 Jan
  • 2017: Wed 04 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

January 4th - 10th

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Prediction

Eurostar £58 return (Jan-Mar trips)

When it started
  • 2020: Tue 07 Jan
  • 2019: Didn't Happen
  • 2018: Tue 02 Jan
  • 2017: Wed 04 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

M&S 'up to 50% off' sale boosting to up to 70% off

When it started
  • 2020: Wed 15 Jan
  • 2019: Thu 10 Jan
  • 2018: Mon 15 Jan
  • 2017: Tue 10 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!
Prediction

The Sun '£9.50' holidays via tokens, collect in newspaper

When it started
  • 2020: Sat 04 Jan
  • 2019: Sat 05 Jan
  • 2018: Sat 06 Jan
  • 2017: Sat 07 Jan
likelihood
did it happen? No, this deal didn't happen!

Predicted start date: Sat 4 Jan

Historically, we've seen The Sun offer its '£9.50' holidays at the beginning of January – and 2018 was no exception. In reality, they're never actually £9.50, but if you dodged the costly extras you could get a trip for four people for £44.