How will energy prices change?
What will happen to the Energy Price Cap in 2025 and beyond?
If you're in one of the 65% of homes in England, Scotland or Wales on a standard variable tariff, the price you pay is controlled by the Energy Price Cap. Yet the Cap changes every three months, so it's important to know what's likely to happen in future and how it affects your bill.
How is the Energy Price Cap predicted to change in 2025?
Energy Price Cap changes are based on a published algorithm set out by regulator Ofgem. As it's a publicly available algorithm, firms can use it to make predictions on how the Cap will change in future. For full info on how the Cap works, see our Price Cap FAQs.
Currently, a handful of companies make regular, publicly available Price Cap predictions: energy suppliers EDF, British Gas and E.on Next.
Energy prices are predicted to rise over the next year
On 1 July, the Price Cap will fall by 7%, meaning a household with typical usage paying by Direct Debit will pay £1,720 a year.
After this, most analysts are predicting a rise in the Price Cap in October, with it predicted to rise again in January and April next year.
. | EDF Price Cap predictions on typical use (1) | British Gas Price Cap predictions on typical use (2) | E.on Next Price Cap predictions on typical use (3) | Average Price Cap predictions on typical use (4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
NEW confirmed Price Cap (1 July to 30 September 2025 ): DOWN 7% - £1,720 a year | ||||
1 October to 31 December 2025 Crystal-ball gazing | UP 3% | UP 3% | UP 2% | UP 2% |
1 January to 31 March 2026 Crystal-ball gazing | UP 2% | UP 2% | DOWN 1% | UP 1% |
1 April to 30 June 2026 Crystal-ball gazing | UP 4% | UP 3% | N/A | UP 5% |
Based on a dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. Ofgem typical use: 2,700 kilowatt hours of electricity, 11,500 kilowatt of gas. (1) According to the latest prediction (on 16 June 2025). (2) According to the latest prediction (on 17 June May 2025). (3) According to the latest prediction (on 16 June 2025). (4) Average according to the latest predictions (on week beginning 16 June 2025) from EDF, British Gas and E.on Next's Price Cap Forecasting Services.
Other energy analysts have their own forecasting services, but these are updated less frequently than those in the table above. For example, Cornwall Insight and Octopus Energy have not updated their predictions since the end of May, so we have chosen not to include these in our table.
The further out the prediction is, the more crystal-ball gazing it is
Bear in mind, the further out you go, the more crystal-ball gazing (and subject to change) the predictions are. Each Price Cap is based on a three-month assessment period, which ends roughly six weeks before each new Cap takes effect.
During this period, Ofgem will look at wholesale prices (and other costs included in the Cap) to decide what the rates and standing charges should be for the next Price Cap period.
For example, the October 2025 Price Cap will be based on the assessment period from 19 May to 18 August 2025. As this period is only two thirds of the way through, the predictions are fairly weak.
After that, it becomes guesswork, as we aren't anywhere near the assessment periods for future Caps, and - as we've seen in the past - things can change rapidly.
We mainly use EDF Energy's Price Forecasting Service when looking at how the Price Cap is predicted to change over the next year, including in our Cheap Energy Club tool – which aims to give you an idea of how your bill will change over the next 12 months if you're on a Price-Capped tariff (or you move to one when your fix ends).
We've gone with EDF as it's updated frequently and offers publicly available predictions for a full year ahead. We also know EDF's predictions have been very similar to Cornwall Insight's (our previous prediction firm), and have been reasonably close to announced Caps in the past.
What's more, it's in EDF's interest to be as as accurate as possible – it publishes these publicly, so it has to be confident in them.
We use EDF's Price Forecasting Service in our Cheap Energy Club
What are current energy prices?
On typical use, a household paying by Direct Debit pays £1,849 a year under the current Price Cap. This will fall to £1,720 a year from 1 July. But remember, the cap doesn't limit how much you pay, it's a cap on what you pay for each unit of gas and electricity that you use, plus it sets a maximum daily standing charge (what you pay to have your home connected to the grid) – so if you use more, you pay more.
The tables below show the average unit rates and standing charges per day (these vary by region) under the current Price Cap from 1 April and from 1 July.
For a region-by-region breakdown of what you're currently paying, see our Energy Price Cap rates guide or see our 'What you'll pay from July' calculator for an estimate of how much you should be paying under the Cap.
| Gas | Electricity |
|---|---|---|
Direct Debit | Unit rate: 6.99p per kWh Standing charge: 32.67p per day | Unit rate: 27.03p per kWh Standing charge: 53.80p per day |
Prepayment | Unit rate: 6.78p per kWh Standing charge: 32.67p per day | Unit rate: 26.20p per kWh Standing charge: 53.80 per day |
On receipt of a bill | Unit rate: 7.35p per kWh Standing charge: 37.57p per day | Unit rate: 28.45p per kWh Standing charge: 59.60p per day |
Rates and standing charges are averages, which vary by region.
Gas | Electricity | |
Direct Debit | Unit rate: 6.33p per kWh Standing charge: 29.82p per day | Unit rate: 25.73p per kWh Standing charge: 51.37p per day |
Prepayment | Unit rate: 6.11p per kWh Standing charge: 29.82p per day | Unit rate: 24.92p per kWh Standing charge: 51.37 per day |
On receipt of a bill | Unit rate: 6.68p per kWh Standing charge: 37.70p per day | Unit rate: 27.18p per kWh Standing charge: 59.26p per day |
Rates and standing charges are averages, which vary by region.
Can I switch and save?
Now could be a good time to fix, as there are deals cheaper than the current Price Cap.
Your best deal will depend on your region and usage, so it's best to get a bespoke comparison. You can use our Cheap Energy Club to see the top deals for you, or see our Should you fix? guide for full info on the all options available.
And switching's easy, the only thing that changes is customer service and who bills you. It's the same gas, same electricity and same safety. Your supply always stays on and no one visits your home unless you want or need smart meters.
Why have prices been so high?
The energy market has been crisis in recent years, with the price of energy rising massively toward the end of 2021, hitting a peak over the winter of late 2022 and early 2023, before falling back over the last year or so. Yet prices are still staggeringly high, with many paying nearly double compared to pre-crisis levels.
This has all been down to high wholesale energy prices. When the crisis began, in 2021, wholesale prices rose rapidly, as numerous countries lifted Covid-19 lockdowns, causing a surge in energy demand, as business and industry re-opened. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine also caused wholesale energy prices to spike, as many countries reduced or ended Russian gas imports in response, constraining supplies further.
While wholesale prices are significantly lower now than at the peak of the energy crisis, they still remain much higher than pre-crisis levels.
How to cut energy costs
There are a few areas to focus on...
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Have you got all the help you qualify for? Even with the Price Cap at much lower levels than during the energy crisis, prices are still be unaffordable for many. Check our Struggling to pay – energy help guide to ensure you're getting all the help you're entitled to.
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Try to cut your usage. There are lots of ways to reduce what you use. See our Energy saving tips, the Energy mythbusters guide for less clear-cut issues, and our Heat the human guide.
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Some could get free insulation or a grant to replace an old boiler. The Government expanded the eligibility criteria for free insulation in 2023, meaning you don't necessarily need to be on benefits to take advantage of the scheme. Our Great British Insulation Scheme guide has more on what's available.
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