Martin Lewis: So Energy launches first 'open market' fixed deal in months – here's who can get it

Martin Lewis: "Right. Is it time to fix your energy bill? That's your question. Well, there are no, well there were no, there sort of still are no... we'll get on to why in a minute.

"There are no open market tariffs that anybody who wants to can switch to at the moment. All of the deals are existing customer only. Now, the problem with that is information is therefore sketchy because the rules are outdated and I'm campaigning with Ofgem to change it.

"Basically the rules say if they publish an 'open to everybody' tariff, they have to provide details on the regional rates. But if it's existing customers, they don't. So I've been having to crowdsource information rather than get official information, which means you've just got to be slightly careful with what I say. It's to the best of my knowledge, but I can't promise you it's right.

"Now, of course, the analysis at the moment is how does a fix compare to sticking on the price cap tariff? I feel a graph coming on [see below]. Here we go. So here's the story so far. It's a simplified version of my normal energy graph. We were on the Energy Price Cap. This is based on that nonsense typical use figure there, but it doesn't mean anything, it's more the percentage change.

"So then we had the Energy Price Guarantee. The Price Cap was going to go so high they brought in the Price Guarantee, which is the Government-subsidised tariff. That's what we're on at the moment. For someone on typical use, you'd pay £2,500 a year. Use more, you pay more, use less, you pay less.

"Now, in July, we now know that is due to drop 17%. Your bills are likely to drop 17% in July, taking somebody on typical use down to £2,074. After that point, from October onwards, we're into crystal-ball gazing. The predictions are from Cornwall Insight, who I use to do this and they're one of the best out there. But things change, so these are not set in stone, they could change.

"From October, we think it's going to go down another maybe 7%. It's looking better than it was even a few weeks ago. And then from January, it'll probably go up just about 1%. So there you go. That's the prediction as far as we go over the next nine months or so.

"So if you were going to fix, you wouldn't want to lock in up here, which by the way, it's worth noting, the green line is the Energy Price Guarantee, so that's the highest it could possibly go, which is a rise of 20% compared to current prices. So you wouldn't want to fix here.

"You would probably want to get a fix here [at the October price] because then you're getting price certainty and it's cheaper than we're expected to pay. But actually, even if you could get a fix at roughly the July price or less, because you then are guaranteed what you're going to pay, it may well be worth it if you want price certainty. So that's really what I'm looking at.

"If I go back to my origins, my basic rule of thumb, if it's the same or cheaper than the July Cap, it looks good based on current predictions, which involve a bit of a crystal ball, so I can't set this in stone for you. And just remember, if you're comparing, it's best to do that on the July unit rates, but if you don't have those, the July cap is on average 17% less than you are currently paying.

"So now let's go through to the tariff. So now let's go through to the tariffs that are currently available. These are fixes, they're all one-year fixes.

"There's a So Energy deal. I'll come to the uSwitch bit in a minute. That is 1%, 1.3% under the July price cap. So on this basis, it is worth doing – it's for all existing So Energy customers. But I learned about an hour before the show that uSwitch and also Confused.com, which uses uSwitch as an engine I believe, are doing a mail out to the people who are on their existing mailing list, offering them this tariff, even if you're not a So Energy customer.

"Now, if you get that, this looks, if you want price certainty, a good deal if they don't sell out on that because I suspect there's a limited tranche – again, I'm struggling to get details, it's happened very quickly – then they may well offer it to the entire open market. So if you're on the uSwitch mailing list you could get it.

"So this is what I mean, there aren't new customer deals, but there are 'sort of new' customer deals. But you've got to be an existing uSwitch customer to be able to get this one.

"There's an Ovo SSE deal available to all its existing customers. It's 7% more than July. Personally, I don't think that one is worth it at the moment based on current predictions, things could change.

"There's been a British Gas deal. This may have been pulled. It's 1.4% under the July price cap. But finding the details, I did a poll on Twitter, only 3% of existing customers have been offered it. The rest haven't. So it's a case of if you're offered it, it could be good, but most of you won't be.

"And then there's an E.on one that's also under the July Price Cap, E.on Next. But that's only for people coming off its existing fixed tariffs. That's again not available to the mainstream.

"So really there's the Ovo one, but I wouldn't go for it. This [uSwitch deal] is your main hope at the moment. The uSwitch deal, if you can get it, if you choose to switch to So Energy, there will be exit penalties if you come out early, but on rate, just looking purely on the rate, it looks pretty decent at the moment if you want price certainty.

"Did that make sense?"

Audience member: "Yes. Yeah."

Martin: "Thank heavens for that. I didn't like the pause. I did not like the pause."