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Warning. The Energy Price Cap rises 13% next week!
Ends Friday. Exclusive energy FIX 
Cheapest British Gas fix since Mid-East conflict started. On your firm's standard tariff? Lock in for 1yr+ at 15% less than the new 1 July rates

Already a BG customer? You can get it too - even if you're already on one of its fixes

An intro from Martin... Cutting to the chase, if you're on your firm's standard variable (ie, Price-Capped) tariff, get off it before it jumps 13% in a week's time. Our British Gas Exclusive Fix is currently the market's cheapest, letting you lock in a rate for 14mths - for less than the current rate, never mind the rate once it increases.

The bigger picture is that while the Middle East conflict is potentially moving towards its end - for most people's energy bills, it hasn't hit yet. For those on standard tariffs (ie, you haven't switched, or your special deal/fix ended and you did nowt), your rate is almost certainly set by Ofgem's Price Cap. And that Price Cap is slow to rise and slow to fall.

Each Cap period lasts three months. The one starting 1 July is set based on wholesale energy costs in the mid-Feb to mid-May 'assessment period'. The conflict started in March, so it's the first to include those big price spikes, which is why it'll jump 13%. 

Yet even if the conflict fully ended today, as we're already well into the assessment period for October's Cap, those high rates are somewhat bedded in. So that's still likely to be higher than today's April Cap rates (see Price Cap predictions).

Conversely, the rate you can fix at moves quickly, reflecting current not past wholesale costs. So today's cheapest fix lets you lock in a rate at less than the current Cap, far less than the July Cap, and very likely less than the Cap starting in October for the rest of the year. So, if you want peace of mind, that is the risk-averse option. 

If you're already on a fix, the decision is far more nuanced - see I'm fixed is it worth re-fixing now. So, let me and the team talk you through the details below...

1. New. Cheapest fix and it's from a big name. A fixed tariff is where you lock in a rate for a set time (you still pay more if you use more, though), giving you the peace of mind of price certainty - and currently instant savings too. Often you say to us you don't want to fix unless it's a name you know, so we've sorted this...

Our new British Gas Fixed Exclusive Aug27 v4 tariff locks in the rates you pay until Aug 2027. At the time of writing (2pm Tue), when you include the MSE £20 dual fuel cashback, it is the market's joint-cheapest fix (as things can change rapidly, the link goes via our comparison, so you can see any new deals) - and far cheaper than any other big names.

In fact, it's 9% cheaper (equiv £150 on typical use) than the cheapest fix on British Gas' own site. 

- It's monthly Direct Debit, or quarterly cash or cheque. For other payment methods, do a comparison to find the cheapest.
- It's dual or single fuel. It can be for gas-only, electricity-only, or dual-fuel (ie, have both).
- No Smart Meter needed. Though it's fine if you have one. 
- It has agreed to MSE enhanced service. If there's an issue, always communicate with British Gas first, but if it doesn't sort it, contact our Energy Club help and we have the ability to try and escalate it.
- Early-exit penalties: £50/fuel, unless you refix with BG (a key boon). As with most fixes, early exit penalties are payable if you leave 49+ days before the fix ends. Yet here, you can re-fix mid-term with another BG fix (not variable) without penalty. A useful get-out-of-jail-free card in this time of huge UK and global uncertainty. It means, if world energy prices plummet, you at least should have an option to refix again at a lower price.

Always do a full comparison. MSE Cheap Energy Club is whole-of-market by default, so we don't hide tariffs.

2. Should I fix now if I'm already on a fix? Many think the Price Cap rising in July has an impact on fix prices too. It doesn't. The only thing it impacts for fixers is the rate you'd move to once your fix ends if you did nothing. The Price Cap is based on a time lag; the rates on new fixes are based far more on today's wholesale rate and move much more quickly...

• On a British Gas fix? Do a comparison - as if our British Gas fix is cheaper than your current one, you can move to it with no early-exit penalties (and get MSE cashback). If it's more expensive, then follow the logic below.
  
  
• Fix ending soon? If you're in the last 49 days, the rules state you are free to switch without early-exit penalties. So do a comparison and see what's available. You'll probably pay a higher rate fixing now than you had, but if you value a 'bird in the hand', then fixes now are far cheaper than the Price Cap rate your tariff will jump to when your fix ends if you do nothing. 
  
  Do be aware though, that if lasting peace is agreed, you may've locked in at a higher price than you could've got by waiting. If you are happy to ride it out and think things will be over soon, you could hold on until the last minute and see what deals there are then.
  
  
• Decent amount of time left on your fix? Without a crystal ball, there's no right answer. If you're on a cheap fix, you are sitting pretty for now, and most would need to pay an early-exit penalty to leave, which adds to the cost (though the bigger your usage, the smaller that is proportionately). So, let's play out the two key scenarios... 
  
  - The conflict fully ends soon: By waiting it out, you'll likely be able to get a much cheaper fix when your fix ends than you can now.
  
  - The conflict reignites and drags on for many months and prices stay high: Your fix will end, and there is a chance there will be no fixes at today's rates (though it may only be a percent or two higher). So, especially if you've a long time to go, the saving you made in the meantime by being on your fix could outweigh a slight increase in fix prices later. Listen to Martin's full 'should I fix again?' analysis in his podcast (titled about haggling) from last week.
  
  On balance, if you're on a cheap fix, Martin says: "I'd personally (I've no crystal ball though) stick where I am unless you're very worried about the affordability of potentially higher future prices."

3. The Price Cap is predicted to stay high for the rest of the year. The October Price Cap is based on wholesale rates from mid-May to mid-Aug, so we're not far from half way through. The best way to look at this is this graph of UK natural gas prices, which is the biggest factor in both gas and electricity prices. 

As you'll see, they've been high all that period, so currently the prediction is a further 2% rise on top of the July rise. While that could change, it is now almost certain the October Cap will be higher than what we pay now. Further out is real crystal ball territory, but the analysts currently estimate little change for next January. 

On that data, fixing at 15% below the July Price Cap rather than staying on a standard rate looks a smart move right now. It protects you against future rises and, even if prices shocked everyone and did drop, you could always switch again (there may be exit fees though).

4. If I wait, could it be cheaper to get a fix in a few weeks? Yes! It could be cheaper - or much more expensive. The rate you can fix at has dropped (last month you couldn't fix at less than the April Price Cap) and, if the negotiations in the Middle East lead to lasting peace, it's possible even cheaper fixes will be available. Lots of ifs and buts there, though. 

That's why the real message is to focus on how risk-averse you are: the less you can afford big hikes, the risk averse option if you're on a standard tariff is to fix now and start saving sooner. 

5. Variable tariffs come up cheapest in the comparison - are they worth it? Some suppliers offer cheap variable or tracker tariffs that you may see top of your results when you do a comparison - while these tariffs look cheap right now, all will likely increase in price from 1 July once the new Price Cap hits. 

The possible exception is the Home Energy Fair Variable tariff, which is currently the cheapest tariff overall, at 10.1% below the current Cap. In fact, technically it is a Price-Capped tariff, as it is its standard variable deal - it just chooses not to price at the Cap. Yet, as it is variable, Home Energy is allowed to increase the price at any time (up to the Cap limit) - though it has no exit fees, so if it did you could leave at any time. If that works for you, it can be a decent option. 

6. Specialist tariffs worth considering for some... A few of these are tough to display via the traditional comparison site model (we're trying to work through how to do it in the future, as this becomes more common).

• For low users, there are trackers that discount the Standing Charge. The main one here is EDF's tracker. It's essentially a Price-Capped tariff, but with £50/yr lower Standing Charges. It's good, but ONLY for very low users (eg, under roughly £80/mth use). There are also trackers that discount Price Cap unit rates - but with the Price Cap rising, you're likely better just fixing instead right now.
  
  
• Got an EV? Consider a dedicated tariff. There are special electric vehicle (EV) tariffs. These are fixes that give cheaper rates for charging your car.
  
  
• Solar panel tariffs. If you have solar panels, there are times you want to link these to your energy bills. See our switch solar panels tariffs guide for more.
  
  
• Rapid change, time-of-use tariffs. For sophisticated users, especially those with batteries, Octopus has two of these tariffs: Agile (electricity price changes every half-hour) and its dual-fuel or single-fuel Tracker tariff (price changes every day). 

7. Can you cut bills by cutting your use? Obviously, cutting usage cuts bills, so we've some detailed guides that can help:

• 70+ ways to save energy includes a mix of hardcore savings and some thrifty crowd-sourced tips. From cutting your boiler flowrate to tactical curtains and more.
• Energy mythbusting covers less clear-cut issues, including the thorny question of 'better to keep the heating on low all day or just when needed?'

8. What to do if you're struggling to pay? It's always worth talking to your energy firm. Be polite and straight with it, and make sure you explain if you're vulnerable and ask to be put on the 'Priority Services Register'.

There can be hardship & debt grants from energy suppliers. For far more guidance, see our full What to do if you're struggling to pay energy bills guide.

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PS: What is 'MSE cashback'? Some providers pay energy comparison sites to facilitate the switch (you still get the same price as going direct). Unlike other sites, we don't default to hiding tariffs that don't pay. Instead, we show them all, but when we get paid to switch you, we give you a chunk of this money as cashback. So those that pay us are relatively cheaper for you, and it's likely more people switch to them. Win-win.