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Martin's likely urgent warning...

Get off the energy Price Cap while you can! Don't ignore this...

"The cost of fixing has dropped since the Middle East ceasefire announcement, but that may start to unravel, so the window of opportunity may close. Act NOW and you can lock in a fixed rate below the new lower April Price Cap, which MOST of you are on (even if you don't know it). "This is crucial if you want certainty your rate can't rise, as the Cap is predicted to jump 14% on 1 July.  "Whether you can get a fix, and at what price, depends on your region, use & payment method, so do a full market comparison asap. You're looking for one that saves you even a small amount over the current Cap, as far bigger savings will come from July.  "This includes an exclusive, market-cheaper EDF 15mth fix that's guaranteed to stick around till Wed."

Now the detail... the wholesale cost of gas is a major factor in our electricity costs too, and it's risen up to 70% due to the Middle East conflict. Yet there was a slight reprieve last week, as the ceasefire led to a drop. Some firms bought (hedged) at that lower rate and started offering fixes over 6% cheaper than a week before, leaving them for the first time in weeks cheaper than the April Price Cap (see cheapest deals).

Yesterday wholesale rates rose again, then today dropped back. Volatility is high. So this could be the last chance to lock in below the Price Cap, or equally fixes could get cheaper. Yet a bird in the hand etc... so as you can lock in cheaper than the Cap right now that's the safe option. 

- Unsure if you're on the Cap? You probably are!
- The cheapest deals right now
- Specialist tariffs worth looking at
- The Price Cap is predicted to rise sharply
- I'm already on a fix, what do I do?

1. Unsure if you're on the Price Cap? You almost certainly are! A tale from Martin on this... "I spoke at Ideal Home at the weekend and asked for a show of hands from those on fixed energy tariffs, or other special rates they'd actively chosen. About a third of the hands went up. So I asked who is on a Price-Capped tariff, and very few hands moved. Yet, if you're in Eng, Wales, or Scot and aren't on a fix or special tariff, you are by definition on a tariff covered by the Price Cap, so all the rest of the hands should've gone up too."

If you're on your firm's bog-standard, default, 'I've not chosen anything special' deal, it's a Price Cap tariff - meaning effectively the regulator Ofgem dictates the maximum Standing Charge and unit rate you pay. It's set for each region and moves every three months. Almost every firm prices at the max. The Price Cap isn't cheap. In general, you don't want to be on it.

2. The cheapest deals you can switch to... We compare prices to the current April Price Cap, the price of which is based on a world before the Middle East conflict started. Yet that will be factored in from 1 July, which is why it is strongly predicted to rise. Yet with fixes the rate you pay for energy is locked in (though the total amount you pay still depends on usage).

PS: The market is volatile so prices can change, and new tariffs can come in, but the links are via our comparison which is always updated.

Q. If I wait, could it be cheaper to get a fix in a few weeks? Yes! It could be cheaper - or much more expensive. The rate you can fix at has dropped, but if the Middle East conflict properly ends soon, it's possible even cheaper fixes will be available. If not, this could be the only window to lock in at below the current Cap. It's unknowable.

That's why the real message is to focus on how risk-averse you are: the less you can afford big hikes, the safer it is to fix now. Yet do factor in early-exit penalties - if they're not too big and prices did lower in future, that means you could pay to leave and still save. 

Q. What is 'MSE cashback'? Some providers pay energy comparison sites to facilitate the switch (you still get the same price as going direct). Unlike other sites, we don't default to hiding tariffs that don't pay. Instead, we show them all, but when we get paid to switch you, we give you a chunk of this as cashback. That means tariffs where we're paid are relatively cheaper for you, so it's likely more people switch to them. Win-win.

3. Specialist tariffs worth considering too... While fixing is simplest, there are other deals worth considering for some. A few are tough to display via the traditional comparison site model (we're trying to work through how to do it in the future, as this becomes more common), so lets walk through the main ones...

• Got an EV? Consider a dedicated tariff. There are special electric vehicle (EV) tariffs. There are fixes that give cheaper rates for charging your car.
  
  
• Octopus rapid-change time-of-use tariffs. The big two are Octopus Agile (electricity price changes every half-hour) and its dual-fuel or single fuel Tracker tariff (price changes every day). Generally, these are for sophisticated users who monitor prices, and with Agile, who shift usage patterns to match.
  
  These tariffs are volatile by nature as they're based on wholesale rates for the day. Recently, Agile has had days where it's not much less than the Price Cap off-peak, with peak times far above it - yet there have been other days where you're paid to use energy! Tracker is hovering above and below the Cap depending on the day for electricity, but gas has been consistently above the Cap since the conflict began.
  
  These Octopus tariffs are only available for existing customers, though to get 'em, you could first try switching to the Octopus Flexible tariff then, once in, switch to one of these.
  
  
• Solar Panel tariffs. If you have solar panels, there are times you want to link these to your energy bills. See our switch solar panels tariffs guide for more.
  

4. The Price Cap is due to rise sharply on 1 July. The Cap changes every three months. The next starts 1 July and is based on mid-Feb to mid-May wholesale prices... and the Middle East conflict started at the end of Feb. Analysts currently predict it'll RISE around 14% (slightly better than it was looking).

Even if things all reverted back to pre-crisis rates (unlikely), there will still almost certainly be a substantial rise in July as the assessment is an average of wholesale rates over three months - and we're two-thirds of the way through that. Once the Cap rises in July, it's not predicted to drop materially across the winter - though as that's further out, it's somewhat crystal-ball gazing.

5. 'I'm already on a fix, should I consider switching again?' The answer depends on how long there is left on your fix... 

• Fix not ending soon? Without a crystal ball, there's no right answer here. If you're on a cheap fix, you are sitting pretty for now, and would likely need to pay an early-exit penalty to leave, which adds to cost (though the bigger your usage, the smaller that is proportionately). So let's play out the two key scenarios... 
  
  - The conflict ends soon: By waiting it out, you'll likely be able to get a much cheaper fix than you can now when your fix ends.
  
  - The conflict drags on for many months and prices stay high: Your fix will end and there is a chance there will be no fixes cheaper than the Price Cap (which you'll move to if you do nowt). That Cap will almost certainly rise substantially in July, and then stay high in October. 
  
  If this feels a nightmare scenario, you could look at paying the early-exit penalty and refix now for longer - though you'll likely pay more to do so. On balance, that's probably not worth it, unless you're very worried about the affordability of rising prices.
  
  
• Fix ending soon? If you're in the last 49 days, the rules state you are free to switch without any early-exit penalties. Do a comparison and see what's available. It'll likely show your cheapest is more than you pay now - but the real key is to find one that is less than what you'll pay on the Price Cap when your current fix ends (you'll be able to see that), especially if that date is close.
  
  If so, and you're risk-averse (scared of big hikes), the safest thing to do is grab the cheapest fix now in case things get worse and they get even costlier, so you've no option but to go on the Price Cap. Yet be aware that if the conflict were to end soon, then you may've locked in at a higher price than you could've got by waiting. 
  
  If you are happy to ride it out and think things will be over soon, you could hold on until the last minute and see what fixes there are then.

6. Can you cut bills by cutting your use? Obviously, cutting use cuts bills, so we've some detailed guides that can help:

• 70+ ways to save energy includes a mix of hardcore savings and some thrifty crowd-sourced tips. From cutting your boiler flowrate to tactical curtains and more.
• Energy mythbusting covers less clear-cut issues, including the thorny question of 'better to keep the heating on low all day or just when needed?'
• Heat the human, not the home is aimed primarily at those who are really struggling (though thankfully the improving weather helps).

7. What to do if you're struggling to pay? It's always worth talking to your energy firm. Be polite and straight with it, and make sure you explain if you're vulnerable and ask to be put on the 'Priority Services Register'.

There can be hardship & debt grants from energy suppliers. For far more guidance, see our full What to do if you're struggling to pay energy bills guide.